Party 30-60 Turned nuts

FatalError · #1 07-04-2005, 03:19 AM

My logic for the turn lead is to follow, UTG is mr 700 himself calling station extraordinare, all others are very tag, between 10-18 vpip over the 300 hands i have with them

so it begs asking, was a turn lead very wrong here?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP3 3-bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds.

River: (11 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

AlexSem · #2 07-04-2005, 03:27 AM

why not raise preflop

why not 4-bet flop

why not check the turn hoping for someone to catch the 4th spade and pay you off with a K high?

Nightwish · #3 07-04-2005, 04:19 AM

How much of a calling station is UTG? Meaning, how likely is he to call the flop if you were to cap? Because if he is pretty likely to call 3 cold, then you should cap the flop for value.

DonButtons · #4 07-04-2005, 11:33 AM

UTG see's 100% flops, 100% lol. Enough said.

rory · #5 07-04-2005, 12:00 PM

Raise preflop, 4 bet the flop. Turn lead is correct because the most likely bettor the guy to your right, which means if you go for a check-raise you'll be facing the rest of the field with 2 cold which is no good. Better to bet and trap the people in between for a bet if you can, hoping your right hand opponent raises again. Also with the flop action, it looks like there could be a smaller flush draw out there and you want to give whoever that might be a chance to raise you so you can 3-bet.

rory · #6 07-04-2005, 12:01 PM

The K is unlikely to fold for one more bet on the turn anyway.

Victor · #7 07-04-2005, 12:32 PM

raise preflop since your hand is the best.

4bet the flop because you have 12-15 outs so with 3 opponents you are making money.

turn and river are fine.

Ezcheeze · #8 07-04-2005, 06:49 PM

Not raising preflop was one of the biggest mistakes you've ever made at limit hold em.

FatalError · #9 07-04-2005, 07:14 PM

The reasons i did'nt raise preflop were two fold

#1 the table had been relatively passive, a preflop raise would probably cut down on my flop action, i decided not to raise for deceptions

#2 UTG is a station and if i whiff this flop after raising preflop i'm left in a spot where i'm leading a flop i cannot hope to win, i wanted to see the flop before committing anymore chips

I guess this reasoning is probably wrong but i don't feel like my lack of a preflop raise was disasterous, although i will admit not capping the flop was a poor decision

Ezcheeze · #10 07-04-2005, 09:17 PM

Not raising preflop is DISASTROUS. Just plug in some likely hands for the limipers to have run a sim on twodimes vs AQ suited and see the percentages. Put some different hands in and run it agian. What you'll find is in almost every case AQ suited is a huge money favorite preflop, enough so that it overides any postflop advantage that comes from not raising.

I wasn't joking or exaggerating at all when I said not raising preflop was one of the biggest mistakes you've ever made in limit hold em.