Flopped flush

bizaff · #1 06-29-2005, 01:53 AM

No reads, just sat down.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter

CO ($14.3)
Button ($9.85)
SB ($9.95)
Hero ($24.4)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($45.9)
MP1 ($32.7)
MP2 ($70.84)
MP3 ($7.68)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.35) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1, UTG+1 raises to $4, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $9, UTG calls $18.75 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $15.75, Hero...?

Am I up against sets/straights/bare A or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] often enough to call? Or is this what I get for no reads? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

xorbie · #2 06-29-2005, 02:17 AM

Call.

JohnG · #3 06-29-2005, 04:36 AM

It looks like you are getting about 5-1. You are very likely beat, but against bad players you are probably getting the pot odds to call.

Your 2nd raise on the flop is the problem. Such a small raise gives hands you beat the price to draw, whilst revealing your hand to a large extent. It's giving your opponents the chance to play correctly when they are beat whilst allowing yourself to go broke in a nothing pot when you are beat.

When I bet the flop and get raised here. Against poor players that can have a lot of hands for the action and pay off with sets, draws, lower flushes etc. I would re-raise big, committing myself to getting allin then and there. Against better players, I call and take a card off, or fold.

On these ratios against decent players, out of position in a small limped pot with a large field, a non-nut flush is not a hand I want to play a big pot with. I'd probably check it to begin with.

In general, with a large field of decent players in a limped pot and a co-ordinated board, when the pot gets big you are very likely to be looking at the nuts. Look at the play through each opponents eyes, and think of the strength shown here, by everyone.

MTBlue · #4 06-29-2005, 05:07 AM

It's the third nut flush not a baby flush. I'm sure you called and saw a nut flush but I can think of maybe 5 instances out 100,000 hands where I have lost with a k or a q high flush to an ace high. Call and you'll see bottom two or a set and a pair and draw more than enough to make this profitable.

PinkSteel · #5 06-29-2005, 08:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your 2nd raise on the flop is the problem. Such a small raise gives hands you beat the price to draw, whilst revealing your hand to a large extent. It's giving your opponents the chance to play correctly when they are beat whilst allowing yourself to go broke in a nothing pot when you are beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo. Push to UTG+1's flop raise.

You may be beat by a higher flush but (1) that's very unlikely and (2) there is no betting line that will definitively tell you.

However, by pushing to the raise, you offer sets and a dry A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] the opportunity to make a mistake in calling you, which many will do. By raising smaller amounts, they get proper odds to escalate the whole way.

Probable best hand + potential draws to beat you =
Reverse implied odds + bet hard now and hope to take it down or get callers taking bad odds to draw

bizaff · #6 06-29-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your 2nd raise on the flop is the problem. Such a small raise gives hands you beat the price to draw, whilst revealing your hand to a large extent. It's giving your opponents the chance to play correctly when they are beat whilst allowing yourself to go broke in a nothing pot when you are beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot is $16.35 - UTG must call $8, UTG+1 must call $5; 2:1 and 3.25:1 respectively. For a flush draw, these are not great pot odds. If they call here, they can call a push correctly on the river, but that's only after making the first mistake.

[ QUOTE ]
Probable best hand + potential draws to beat you =
Reverse implied odds + bet hard now and hope to take it down or get callers taking bad odds to draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds-wise, I have another $15.15 behind after my $9 raise to the $16.35 pot.

UTG needs to push $18.75 in order to win $26.10 (1.35 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 18.75 more he can win from me) which is about 1.4:1.
UTG+1 needs to push $20.15 in order to win $31.50 which is about 1.55:1.

If my math is right, these still seem like crappy odds.

If I were to push instead of raise to $9, the pot would be $30.50 facing a $19.15 raise; about 1.6:1.

At first I was convinced I was pricing in a bare A and K, but now I've swung the other way. It seems to me, the raise to $9 gives me the option to get away if I so read them for better hands, while not letting them draw correctly.

Am I missing something here?

PinkSteel · #7 06-29-2005, 11:48 AM

You're right about pot odds at the flop, they're not getting them to call your raise to $9, but of course implied odds are what count, and it's up to your opponents to decide if you'll stack off when they hit their last [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. If they think you will, then they are definitely getting implied odds to call.

If you think you can get away after a fourth spade, great; but would you really? How pot committed will you be when they both flat call your $9, and come the river there is a large pot and you have 3rd nuts? Not suggesting you couldn't get away, just pointing out that building the pot will pot-commit everyone that much more.

But if you push the flop, their odds to call with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are definitely incorrect. I don't know that it's a slam dunk, but I think it's the better play.

bizaff · #8 06-30-2005, 12:25 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter

CO ($14.3)
Button ($9.85)
SB ($9.95)
Hero ($24.4)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($45.9)
MP1 ($32.7)
MP2 ($70.84)
MP3 ($7.68)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.35) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1, UTG+1 raises to $4, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $9, UTG calls $18.75 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $15.75, Hero calls $15.15 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $4.40.

Turn: ($69.40) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($69.40) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $69.40

Results:
Hero has 9s Qs (flush, queen high).
UTG has Ks 7s (flush, king high).
UTG+1 has Ts 2s (flush, jack high).
Outcome: UTG wins $60.60. Hero wins $8.80.

I've never seen 3 people flop flushes in one hand. Oh well, I go bust here every time with these stacks.