Did I botch basic MTT strategy?

[Bigdaddydvo]

Good morning,

I'd like you all to follow my PF analysis and comment on how sound it is. It's my final hand of Party's WSOP satelite; Top 12 get seats and there are 26 left. I have around 15K; tourney average at this point is around 22K. I estimate that I'll need between 30-50K when it's all over to stake my claim at a seat. Blinds are 750/1500.

As a note, on the hand that immediately preceeded this one, I open raised to 4K w/AQo on the Button. A tight, somewhat passive SB reraised to 11K, and I folded. The message the table (should) observe is that I won't committ my chips without a premium hand.

On the very next hand, Villian open raises in the hijack to 4K. I have AQo now in the CO once again. The background on the Villian is that he was a relentless blind stealer, so the range of hands I put him on included all pairs, Axs, and suited broadways. I moved in on him from the button w/KQo earlier when he open raised from the CO; he folded. I decide to push. Here are the factors that influenced my decision:

1) He has 35K. He is getting into the target area of having enough chips to go the distance. If he doubles me up, he'll have to start scrapping like everyone else to keep up w/the blinds. A normal player would hence be protective of a stack this size. I estimate that he will throw away mid pairs, suited aces, and will only call with JJ-AA, AK, and possibly, possibly AQ. He also demonstrated earlier that he's capable of folding to a big PF reraise. I thus estimate my fold equity to be quite high.

2) I have ~10BB. Though I'm not dangerously short stacked, I'm quite far from being in a comfort zone.

3) I estimate that the Button and blinds will only get involved in this pot w/QQ or better.

4) Winning the hand PF will be a healthy addition to my chip stack. Double up and I can move into a modified "post and fold mode" and practically book my plane to Vegas.

5) I'm worried about precisely 4 hands-AA, KK, QQ, and AK. Other than those, I'm either far ahead or not worse than a coinflip.


The competing argument, naturally, is that at this point it's best to hunker down, let others make mistakes, and wait for AA-KK to get my chips in. The obvious risk here getting blinded away. My chip stack simply wasn't big enough to go the distance.

If interested in results, read the tourney's thread Bottom line, the Villian made an objectively terrible call, I got my money in with the best hand, and got unlucky. This I understand. What I need to figure out is if the gamble was justified to begin with. I apologize in advance if there are bad-beat connotations. That's part of poker. Rest assured I'm exclusively concerned with my play of the hand.

[Sluss]

I like the play. You need to pick up chips if your going to get the seat. He really doesn't. He could steal (especially if he is good) once and orbit and end up with a seat. Sometimes in sats people forget this fact though and are playing like they want to finish first. So he got rewarded for a brain fart.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I apologize in advance if there are bad-beat connotations. That's part of poker. Rest assured I'm exclusively concerned with my play of the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

blahhhhhhhh then don't post this at all blahhhhhh

your play's fine.

[MicroBob]

Haven't read the results but you stated that he made a 'terrible' call and got lucky.'

Maybe he called with QJ or Ax or something.


Sometimes players with big stacks took some bad chances to get where they are (other times they are good players who are also catching good cards at the time).


I think your analysis that he will throw away mid-pairs, etc might be a bit off (obviously since he called with something bad according to you).

I doubt your folding equity is as high as you think it is.
He made a lay-down to your re-raise once....so the chances that he will do it again are a little bit less EVEN though you yourself had just laid down to a re-raise.


Even if you think he is going to call your all-in with an 88 here I think you should be pushing.
You do have SOME folding equity in there....but the point is that you are going to be a favorite if he decides to 'look you up'.


As was observed...some players don't think in terms of how many chips they will need. They just play like they are shooting for 1st place.


His logic could very well be something like, "Well...I've got 35k and he only has 15k....so I can afford to roll the dice here and see if I'm ahead."


I see this in the pokerstars satellites ALL the freaking time.
Big stacks playing inappropriately aggressive with decent, but not great, hands. And then failing to knock out players like they could for just a little bit more than the BB that they are already in for.
In other words....some people just don't pay attention to correct strategy in satellites.

Hell, I've played in satellites before where the guy who blew away his big-stack and finished on the bubble didn't even REALIZE that he was finishing on the bubble. Seriously.
3 of us were congratulating each other for 'making it' and the other idiot who blew a HUGE lead with crap cards came back on and said, "You mean it was paying for the top 3 finishers? Geez, I wish someone had told me that."
Not everyone is as stupid as that guy...but that doesn't mean they are going to make correct strategy adjustments along the way.


Anyway - yes, I think you have to push with your AQ here. You are generally hoping that he folds....but if he calls here with something worse than you are okay with it. With the blinds in there as well you should be comfortable with him calling you even if it's a coin-toss.


In fact, I think you can consider calling the all-in with AQ on the previous hand as well. That's a pretty big lay-down to make at that stage considering that you already have a less than average stack.
But since your read on the guy was that he was so passive I guess it's a lay-down worth considering. If you had been picking on him once or twice though and suspected he was getting sick of YOU always going after the blinds (or just had some reason to be suspicious of your raise) then I think that calling on that hand would be valid.
The chances that he is trying this move with A8 or 99 or something could be relatively high...but this is still read-dependent of course so your read on him as a passive player was important here.



Too bad you didn't make it.
But it sounds like you are learning something about your tourney game at least and are continunig to improve.
Just keep putting yourself in 'position' to 'have a chance' in one of those things and eventually you will come through and land a big score (WSOP entry or maybe an entry to some other big tourney).
All you can do is play your best and hope you catch some cards as you go along.

[Bigdaddydvo]

Thanks for the checkup.

One of the skills I've probably overapplied to poker from my days of playing chess is that I too often assume my opponent will make an optimum or correct play. Something like "I know I would fold if I was him, so he has to." I guess lucky for us, we wouldn't make money at poker if everyone thought about the game the way we do. Adjusting to how others play is something I will continue to work on.

I opened a PStarz account today with $500 for a last ditch WSOP effort...which sats do you recommend?

[MicroBob]

Obviously it depends on where you think you are strongest.


The $160 double-shootouts are decent if you think of yourself as a better-than-average SNG player.
However, you haven't played any SNG's on Stars before so you're not entirely familiar with the structure there. Being comfortable with the length of the rounds is helpful.
And with $500 you would only have 3 shots at it so you would be more likely to just play 3 of these and totally crap-out without even making a final table in there.


On the WSOP tab there are the $2 re-buys as well as $25+2 re-buys (which are like a $100 tourney) that are good for the 615+35 satellite on Sunday afternoon.
If you can't play in the Sunday satellite then you can just unregister from the event and use your "W$" in whatever special-tab event you choose (they will carry-over to the WCOOP, EPT and Carib-cruise satellites....or you can simply sell them).
I'm typically not available on Sundays and have only played in one of these $650 sat's...but I play in the smaller one's all the time.


I also think the $33-rebuy '1 seat guaranteed' events might be okay for you.

Finally...the $11 quad-shootouts for 1 seat guaranteed are kind of fun....but obviously aren't your best bet to make it to the big one.


I got my seat via the $160 double-shootout. Took me 6 or 7 tries just to make a final-table...and I totally lucked-out and got the seat in my first final-table try (sucking out on a fairly big-name pro with my 33 against his 88).


If I hadn't gotten the seat to the main-event I probably would have gone out there anyway and used my W$ to buy in directly to the $3k event on July 1 (there were several WSOP prelim events where they would let you buy-in directly).
Instead, I got the main-event seat AND will be playing in the July 1 event.


It's obviously kind of late for you though and you understand there's a good chance you won't make it.

But if you try 1 or 2 of those $25 re-buy things and can win 650 in W$ then you will have a little more wiggle-room to take a few shots at getting to the big one.
I would recommend playing the $2 and $5 re-buys in the WSOP tab as well. It doesn't sound like much....but a $5 re-buy really plays close to a $20 freeze-out which isn't THAT low. And you're just trying to win 160 in W$ and keep building the roll you have to take more shots with.

Or
You may want to give it a couple more shots at the double-shootouts or something...and if it doesn't work then just think about building your W$ roll there and focusing on an EPT event in Barcelona (October) or the Carib Cruise (January) instead.

[HoldingFolding]

I was sweating you and followed both hands. As I said in the original thread I don't think I could have laid AQ down in the previous hand; the SB was a solid player and I think he might just have been taking a stand against a perceived steal. Phil was a loose cannon and had you well covered, I think you could effectively put him on any two *live* cards and I got the impression he loved to gamble and wasn't going to lay anything down. (He might also have thought you were tilting slightly from the previous hand).

I'm not sure how much of this is being said with hindsight, however, I think it hammers home the advantage of being the aggressor and avoiding the big stacks. I'll be rooting for you big time if you go for something on Stars, let us know.

[Bigdaddydvo]

Playing the Ten Dollar Quadruple Shootout now on Stars. Won the 1st table...I'll post if I make it past this one.

[MicroBob]

i lost in the 2nd round in the quad-shootout tonight.
i didn't think he was very good but he kept building on me despite his passive play.

still with 2.5k left or so I 'get' him all-in with my AK.
I run up against his AA.
Oops.


first round took 2:20 in that one which is just insane. no idea how a 6-max online single-table tourney can take that long.

[Bigdaddydvo]

Hey, just won round 2!!!!!!!!!!! I'm still alive!

I may actually have a shot. At least I made the money.