Conceptual River Question

[Jake (The Snake)]

Here's the situation. You are heads up and have position on the river. Unknown villain who just sat down has checked. You will call a raise. What percentage (approx) of the time must you expect to be good to make betting correct?

There are more variables than those listed below, but for simplicity I will leave it at this.


Situation A: Villain has been betting/raising. Board is coordinated.

Situation B: Villain has been betting/raising. Board is NOT coordinated.

Situation C: Villain has been passive. Board is coordinated.

Situation D: Villain has been passive. Board is NOT coordinated.


Give reasons for your answers.

[toss]

55% for all of them. I think I read it in a book somewhere.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
55% for all of them. I think I read it in a book somewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's being good 55% of the time that he calls.

[ihardlyknowher]

IMO, these are impossible to answer without knowing more.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I think you can pretty accurately make a range of about 5% without knowing anything else. It's basically a math exercise anyway.

If we assume villain isn't folding a better hand for one bet, we can absolutely narrow the range to only 17 different numbers.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can pretty accurately make a range of about 5% without knowing anything else. It's basically a math exercise anyway.

If we assume villain isn't folding a better hand for one bet, we can absolutely narrow the range to only 17 different numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am interested to see the results but have had too much vodka to do the math right now. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Jake (The Snake)]

Well the initial range is really easy to do.

If you bet, your opponent is either folding, calling or raising. We'll assume for the time being that he won't fold and won't raise a worse hand.

Worst case scenario: He raises every single time he has a better hand and only calls when he has a worse hand. If this is the case, you lose 2 BB whenever you are behind and gain 1 BB when you are ahead. You need to have the best hand > 67% of the time.

Best case scenario: He always calls. You need to have the best hand > 50% of the time.

The actual number is going to fall somewhere inbetween since villain will sometimes fold, sometimes call with a better hand, sometimes raise a worse hand, etc.

What I'm most interested in is what number everybody considers to be the norm (I'm pretty sure HEPFAP or TOP says it's 55% but I can't remember) and by how much other variables in the hand like aggression and the board would change the number.

I have a feeling that the very most these factors could influence the decision is only like 5% and that we tend to think too much about these factors and not simply how often we are ahead.

Hopefully I'm not missing something ridiculous.

[ihardlyknowher]

I see what you are getting at, and it make sense to my drunk ass. Theoretically, could this be purely a function of your opponents WSD and W$@SD stats?