Bubble, do you take a CEV neutral play?

[A_PLUS]

Party 100+9$ 30 pay, 32 remaining. 30th pays 210$, 1st 7K+.

Table has fallen into typical bubble mode. With the blinds generally being won by the 1st raise. Some idiot is stalling on another table (we are hand for hand), so we are getting very few hands per level. I have 4100 TCs with the blinds at 400/800. 1st 3 players fold. Behind me are 3 middlish stacks (1.5 - 2x my stack) One ubertight SS, and chip leader with 17K. I am dealt K9s.

If my opponents had perfect information, and would call whenever they are ahead (AX, 33+, KT+), this is almost neutral CEV to push. Adding in any folding equity I have pushes it to positive. The problem is, I can fold into a 2x buy-in payout very soon. After that, I would need to get to the final table to see another 200$+ change in payout. So whats your line here? Is it max EV to pass this up? If we were still 10-15 players away, this is an autopush for me.

[SossMan]

chip leader in the BB? I'll pass, thank you.

[A_PLUS]

I actually thought the fact that he was in the BB wasnt too bad. I thought it would give me more F.E. with the intermediate stacks. If I know he will defend with anything, I think I like a push more, since I am ahead of 80% of his possible holdings.

**not saying a push is correct, just playing devil's advocate

[Lloyd]

I would fold because of the big stack in the BB. That's not someone you want to be stealing from. If I were him I would be calling your push with a pretty wide range of hands.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold because of the big stack in the BB. That's not someone you want to be stealing from. If I were him I would be calling your push with a pretty wide range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im just struggling with how much of a favorite we would have to be before we would want him to call? My gut tells me that we would want a call by hands like QTo?

Also, if we dont push here, are we resigned to folding into the money?

[Lloyd]

I'd prefer to push on the next hand with a worse hand against a smaller stack then push against the big stack (with anything other than a good hand - and I think what you have here is just marginal).

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Im just struggling with how much of a favorite we would have to be before we would want him to call? My gut tells me that we would want a call by hands like QTo?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not. Look at the EV for finishing 31'st vs. 30'th vs. 11'th. Any sort of coin flip is unacceptable.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if we dont push here, are we resigned to folding into the money?

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No, but you need to have a legitimate hand (AQ or better, something like AT from LP, etc.) You want to be 2:1 or better when called, 3:2 at worst.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
You want to be 2:1 or better when called, 3:2 at worst.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats why I said QTo,about 3:2, FWIW. I figured doubling would but me in top 10-12 or so in chips giving me enough equity to take a 60/40 shot.

I see your point, it just makes me feel dirty folding so much. For all practical purposes, I am folding into the money. I have apx 10% chance of getting a pushing hand before I am down to 3xBB

[schwza]

i've recently starting tightening up in these spots (err.... i keep saying i'm going to, anyway). i think this is a fold due to the flatness of the payouts between the first pay level and the final table.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
i've recently starting tightening up in these spots (err.... i keep saying i'm going to, anyway). i think this is a fold due to the flatness of the payouts between the first pay level and the final table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good stuff. Pretty much exactly what I was thinking right up until I slid that little bar to the right and bet all of my chips. Sometimes I miss that weak tight player I once was.