K-high OOP on the river HU -- bet or check?

[Aaron W.]

Villain is a loose passive player. He hasn't been around very long (a couple orbits), but he's playing over half his hands and isn't doing much betting.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

Your options:

1) Bet it, planning to fold to a raise
2) Check it, planning to fold to a bet

(Check-raise is not an option because villain is passive. He's not going to bet a hand that won't be calling a raise. Against an aggressive opponent who may bet ace-high, the check-raise is more viable.)

Please give reasons. Without sound reasoning, this is just a coin toss.

[irishpint]

sounds like an easy check/fold to me. being loose, he could easily have hit the flop or have a lower PP and if he hasnt thrown a little pair away on the turn when the flush hit i dont expect him to now, either. the pot is still small enough that i can lose it and move on pretty quickly.

[aK13]

I usually check/fold here, unless I have a read that he's folded to a river bet a couple times on drawless boards (yes, I know this board is draw-heavy).

I don't think a LP is folding often enough to make this play, and our hand has NO showdown value. With a hand like AT, I will check/call the river, as I have definitely seen fish bluff with nothing, and it will also give you an idea of what he calls with for future reference when you decide to isolate.

[Jaran]

I see no reason to bet or call this river.

-Jaran

[kapw7]

Clearly check-fold if he is that passive. If he bets you are probably beat. If you bet you are not going to make him fold better hands (A-high maybe but I doubt) so you lose an additional BB to a low pair or A-high most of the times (more than 50% of times).

[Dave G.]

Bet. It's impossible to tell what he has. If he calls you're going to lose, but this bet only has to work 1 time in 6 for it to be profitable. I think a passive player will assume he's beaten and fold here frequently enough for this to be profitable (he very well could be beaten anyway).

I don't like checking because he may bluff. Yes, a significant amount of otherwise passive players do like to bluff the river. If he bluffs just 1 time in 6, he's bluffing correctly. Also, if he checks through, you may still lose because he is too timid to bet ace high, a hand he would almost certainly fold if you bet.

Betting gives you the best chance of winning the pot, and it doesn't have to work that often for it to be correct. Checking gives him the most ways of winning the pot, because you are folding to any action from him, and losing all the times he has an ace.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls you're going to lose, but this bet only has to work 1 time in 6 for it to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it has to work 1 out of 2 times to break even (assuming he is not capable of C-Ring)

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
No it has to work 1 out of 2 times to break even (assuming he is not capable of C-Ring)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're looking at the river bets only, when what we're contesting is the entire pot. There is 5.5 BB in the pot. We are spending 1 BB to potentially win 5.5 BB. Thus, a 1 BB investment will be a profitable investment if villain folds 1 time every 6 times.

5 times he calls / raises and we lose 1 bet. 1 time he folds and we win the pot.

(-1) * 5 + (5.5) * 1 = +0.5 EV.

[imported_Reaction]

Grunched...

I like option .... 2

He is not gon'a raise anything other than the nuts.

Passive-vanilla will call down with a pair. Be it pocket or boarded.

There might be some FE here. Not much against a passive. I think WTSD rate(which you didn't mention) is a factor into this inverse relation ship.

A passive player with an under pair will check it through more then they bet it.

hero beats... nothing other then a bluff - w/o an A.

Passive players have a smaller percentage of bluffing/semi-bluffing.


However.. against the weakness that is Paradise .25/.50 I bet it every time w/o a read.

[imported_Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
5 times he calls / raises: 1 time he folds

[/ QUOTE ]
I would think that a 1/2 passive would fold this w/o a pair/A on the flop or turn.

IMO, your 5:1 is ... overly optimistic.