Botched river?

[haakee]

Full game, live 80-160. Over-aggressive, somewhat loose, tough, tricky, but winning pro limps UTG. 2 bad players limp, and I limp on the button with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Both blinds come in.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG bets out, two callers, I raise. Blinds fold. UTG 3-bets. 1 limper mucks, CO who is a terrible loose fish calls two cold. This could be a 4, a gutshot, or overcards, or something else weird. I cap it. Both call.

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG bets out. Fish folds. I call.

River: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG bets. I call? Who lays this down?

[Garland]

I think this is a case where calling is the worst of the three actions. Here are my preferred choices in order.

(a) Fold
(b) Raise
(c) Call

(a) and (b) can be interchanged if you have a read that you can get villian to make a tough laydown, but I'm inclined to lean towards folding as the river doesn't seem to inspire any reason for fear.

Even if he's pumping a supreme draw like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he wins. He has an overpair, house, or a T most likely, and you can probably only make A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or an overpair possibly fold.

BTW, did you consider raising the turn?

Garland

[Fianchetto]

Some possible hands for UTG: 44, 88, AT, KT, maybe AA/KK that planned a limp reraise preflop...

Would he limp up front with AsXs, QsJs, Js9s (edit: wait no, you hold 9s), because these are the only hands I can see you beating on the river that he would pump on the flop like that. I mean you could very well have just filled up on the turn after you cap it on the flop, so if he does have just a draw, wouldn't he check the turn rather than face getting raised... would he push a pair and a flush draw this strongly? and even so, if he just has one medium pair at the river, I think he'd likely check/call it.

The hands that he would bet the river with all beat you, with the exception of a busted flush draw, and the way it played out I think you're beat. However, in the heat of battle, closing the action on the end, it would be hard for me to lay down. Plus getting what, 12:1, even if calling is a mistake it can't be that bad, and if you've ever seen him push a busted draw hard to the river or he could play QJs this way, I think a call is fine.

[bugstud]

how loose is somewhat loose? Is it A8s UTG loose? or just 44/88 UTG loose? Or other?

I'm rather inclined to fold here, though raising the turn could be considered.