the shuffle at the river

Mikey · #1 01-09-2003, 09:08 PM

ok, i'm sure you guys have seen it every time, see a guy betting the whole way while his opponnent is calling, now on 7th street the person who is betting the whole way, just throws those chips in on the river without even looking at his final hole card, "he feels his hand is good enough to bet here" but now the action is on the caller and he looks down and starts shuffling his cards and squeezes them out.

SITUATION 1.
Let's say you are the aggressor in the hand and Mr. X is the caller who's calling you down the whole way. You fling the max bet on the river while you were betting with your two pair and MR. X starts shuffling and squeezes his cards out doesn't make his hand and then folds

SITUATION 2.
You bet the river with 2 pair, MR.X. starts squeezing out those cards and raises, you look down and have no improvement on the two pair. You know Mr. X. can't be bluffing so you muck.

Here is my question, is it more profitable to fling in those chips at the river when you know your opponnnet was drawing and only the last card can help him or is it better to check to him, only to have him bet his made hand or his bluff and you collect 2 chips.

What is the play here, I hope I'm explaining this correctly.
Thanks for the input. I'm just wondering what is the more profitable play if you are the high hand and you can ascertain from the info on his upcards that he's drawing and only the river can help him since he hasn't raised you on any other previous street?

MRBAA · #2 01-09-2003, 09:55 PM

A classic check and call (only fold if you are VERY sure, because betting a busted draw is a classic bluff, too). You gave the reason -- your bet won't profit you, because your opponent either has a winner or nothing. Now if you think he has been calling with two smaller pair, your river bet is worth it, because he will call with his losing hands as well as raise when he fills. But since he'll never call with a busted straight or flush, you never make anything and you lose either one or two bets when he connects.

Dynasty · #3 01-09-2003, 10:28 PM

I bet in these spots with both one and two pairs and get called often enough by draws which missed but picked up pair(s) along the way.

Value bet your hands. Missing out on river bets with two pair hands is a big mistake.

MRBAA · #4 01-10-2003, 10:55 AM

Dynasty, let's say your opponent showed a two flush on fourth and you started with split queens. You have been head up since you bet fifth. You paired your other down card on fifth, to make queens and fives. You have no pair showing and your opponent has no pair (and no third suited card) showing, but he does have a live king he picked up on fifth. You bet your two pair on fifth and sixth and are called. Now you bet the river? Your opponent could have a pair of kings and call. Or he could have kings up and beat you. Or he could have made his flush and raise. But will he call if he's made, say, a pair of sevens? I just don't think you are getting the 2-1 odds you need to bet against even slightly competent players in this spot. This seems like much more of a hold-em play, where your big pair is less obvious and middle pair is more likely to "keep you honest".

patrick dicaprio · #5 01-10-2003, 12:51 PM

it is definitely more profitable to bet at most limits. what happens when your opponent catches a pair or even a wose two pair? if you check he will check, and if you bet he will call and lose. so you should first think about betting in this situation. rare is teh occasion when i dont bet in this situation.

Pat

MRBAA · #6 01-10-2003, 02:47 PM

Pat, I'm intrigued by what you and Dynasty say here. Remember, we're talking about a situation where you have a strong read that opponent was on a draw to start AND has no pair showing. So they would have had to catch perfect to get just enough to call but not beat you.

patrick dicaprio · #7 01-10-2003, 06:03 PM

they dont have to catch perfect. all they need to do is catch up enough to call. many players at lower limits will call with just a pair, and it aint that hard to catch a pair.

Pat

Dynasty · #8 01-10-2003, 07:37 PM

If your read is really that strong, can't you bet and fold to a raise? Or even check and fold to a bet?

I think you can bet the river and get called by worse hands often enough to show a profit even if you call any raise by your opponent.

Betting here is also part of an overall strategy. You can bet your rivered full-houses in this spot without it looking unusually aggressive to your opponents. The aggressive ones will raise you with their flushes allowing you to 3-bet.

cero_z · #9 01-11-2003, 10:49 PM

I agree with Dynasty and Pat, but since your read is so confident, there's another option. Stall, watch your opponent squeeze out his hand, and then act accordingly. True, he shouldn't even look until you act, but in my experience, a player who can be read this well doesn't know enough to wait. I do this all the time against weak players.

MRBAA · #10 01-12-2003, 12:19 AM

Dynasty, betting or raising on the river and then folding to a raise or reraise is something I'd find very difficult to do. I've bet and folded to a raise many times on earlier streets, but on the river, where you risk losing the whole pot for one more bet, I have never done this. btw, against opponents who will call you down with one pair, I agree you have value in betting. I'm just thinking most won't -- but maybe I am giving my opponents too much credit.