PLO8 $25- Made 2 pair, Nut low draw Turn HU

[flair1239]

Table is typical loose Passive. A few people playing half their hands. A couple tight players.

Villian plays half of his hands, rarely bets.

Hero is CO w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

PF: 2 limpers to hero who limps, blinds call

Flop: (5-players)($1.25): K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Check to Hero who bets ($1.25), Villian calls from MP(1.25)

Turn: (2-players) ($3.75) (K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villian checks, Hero bets($3.75)..

Thoughts: (Please be frank about any erros in my thought processes)

1. I have a weak made hand on the flop. However, I feel it has a reasonable chance of being best.

2. If I get called in a bunch of places, I will probably still be checked to on the turn, so I will probably have the option to take a card. Plus there are not many cards that completely destroy me.

3. The high portion of my hand likes fewer players. And chances are with many players a turn card is going to give someone a redraw if not a better hand.

4. I bet the turn for the following reasons:

-I would like to win right now.
-This could be a straight value bet as he could be coming with a worse low draw, or another A2.
- With this player on this board, I am unlikely to be checkraised and again will probably have the oppurtunity to check behind on the river if something bad happens.

How am I doing?

[Ironman]

Solid reasoning. Looks ok.

I think that more often than not, the caller from the flop will fold this hand unless he has A 2. I can't put him on a better high hand because he would have bet out with a set.

I would bet that you are fine as long as a spade doesn't come up. His low draw is not as good as yours.

Dave

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]


I would bet that you are fine as long as a spade doesn't come up. His low draw is not as good as yours.

Dave

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry about the spades. It's not terribly likely that he picked up a spade draw to go with A2, more likely he has A2 with weak/no high or is an idiot praying with A3, etc. Even if a spade comes on the river, you should still plan on going to war. If it's a low spade, you're getting at least 1/4 and way more often 3/4. If it's a high spade, you have a dry-ace bluff opportunity. The max-bet on the flop and turn are correct, & if you encounter any return-aggression, put all your chips in the middle. If you get quartered here, chalk it up to bad luck, b/c that's what it is. If the high spade comes & you attempt the bluff & the guy calls you down w/ crap flush, make a note that he's not strong enough to lay down 2nd best hands.