AQs Hand

job314 · #1 06-07-2005, 05:04 PM

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (11 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

My thoughts were, I should have raised the flop with 2 overs, a flush draw, and a gutshot. I should have also raised the river.

What do you guys think?

Thanks alot!

shadow29 · #2 06-07-2005, 05:08 PM

wtf?

Reads would help.

I probably do raise this flop. I can't imagine not capping the turn. If you didn't cap the turn, you have to raise the river. You have the second nizzles.

Jakesta · #3 06-07-2005, 05:10 PM

Raise the flop. Cap the turn. Cap the river. The chances of him having exactly KQ here are miniscule, and there are no rake considerations to worry about at .05/.10.

I think Villain has a really big PP here.

LoaferGee12 · #4 06-07-2005, 05:10 PM

The flop call is ok, but you should be capping the turn and raising the river. The only hand that beats you at this point is KQ and you will rarely see someone 3-bet out of the SB w/ that hand.

Jaran · #5 06-07-2005, 05:10 PM

I'm capping the turn. Sometimes I raise the flop, but I like the call here most of the time, as your equity is going to change dramatically on the turn, and your raise is only a semi-bluff, not a value raise. I think you're prolly freerolling QQ here. I don't see many 3bets w/KQ in the sb.

-Jaran

jba · #6 06-07-2005, 05:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm capping the turn. Sometimes I raise the flop, but I like the call here most of the time, as your equity is going to change dramatically on the turn, and your raise is only a semi-bluff, not a value raise. I think you're prolly freerolling QQ here. I don't see many 3bets w/KQ in the sb.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think this is a value raise on the flop. If he has KK (6ways) or QQ (3ways) you have 15 outs, if he has AA (3 ways) or JJ (3 ways) you have 12 outs. you're pretty damn strong here.

edit: QQ you have 12 outs to the win and 3 to a tie

Jaran · #7 06-07-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm capping the turn. Sometimes I raise the flop, but I like the call here most of the time, as your equity is going to change dramatically on the turn, and your raise is only a semi-bluff, not a value raise. I think you're prolly freerolling QQ here. I don't see many 3bets w/KQ in the sb.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think this is a value raise on the flop. If he has KK (6ways) or QQ (3ways) you have 15 outs, if he has AA (3 ways) or JJ (3 ways) you have 12 outs. you're pretty damn strong here.

edit: QQ you have 12 outs to the win and 3 to a tie

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure this as a value bet? We're putting in 1/2 the money on a ~4:1 shot (by the turn), or a little better than 2:1 by the river. At best, I think the raise is neutral EV. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think that a raise is bad here, and I do make it about 35% of the time. I just don't see it as a value raise.

-Jaran
(If my math is off, please correct [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] )

jba · #8 06-07-2005, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm capping the turn. Sometimes I raise the flop, but I like the call here most of the time, as your equity is going to change dramatically on the turn, and your raise is only a semi-bluff, not a value raise. I think you're prolly freerolling QQ here. I don't see many 3bets w/KQ in the sb.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think this is a value raise on the flop. If he has KK (6ways) or QQ (3ways) you have 15 outs, if he has AA (3 ways) or JJ (3 ways) you have 12 outs. you're pretty damn strong here.

edit: QQ you have 12 outs to the win and 3 to a tie

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure this as a value bet? We're putting in 1/2 the money on a ~4:1 shot (by the turn), or a little better than 2:1 by the river. At best, I think the raise is neutral EV. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think that a raise is bad here, and I do make it about 35% of the time. I just don't see it as a value raise.

-Jaran
(If my math is off, please correct [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] )

[/ QUOTE ]

you're giving 4:1 and 2:1 as if you're depending on the flush in order to win. If he has KK you have 15 outs and are around 1:1.2 favorite so it's a value raise against KK; if he has AA or JJ you're around 1.2:1. QQ is probably 1:1. These are as bad as it gets; if there's a chance he's donking around your odds go up. KK is the most likely hand numbers wise (no kings are out).

you also have high implied odds on your draws while your opponent has reverse implied odds with AA/KK/QQ (what I mean is, your made hands will be stronger than his -- there are a lot of cards that can come that you'll want to cap the river with, but few final boards that he will)

am I making sense?

Jaran · #9 06-07-2005, 05:49 PM

Like I said in another post, I suck at math. I'm gonna look at it a little more closely, but you're most likely right.

-Jaran

jba · #10 06-07-2005, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, CO folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (11 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

My thoughts were, I should have raised the flop with 2 overs, a flush draw, and a gutshot. I should have also raised the river.

What do you guys think?

Thanks alot!

[/ QUOTE ]

raise and cap the flop, for sure

since you didn't, CAP THE TURN!!! are you afraid of KQ here or something? yikes cap the turn please. you have the second nuts to an unlikely KQ here and if you happen to be behind to that you have 11 outs to beat him! you are absolutely SMOKING him on the turn and not putting in as many bets as possible is a crime.

I'm guessing AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and you're not losing to any of them.

if he still bets out the river after you capped the flop and turn I'd be tempted to call the river bet. I still might throw in a raise at .05/.1.