Taking Marginal -EV Spots to Set Up a Profitable Image

ZeeJustin · #1 05-26-2005, 04:55 PM

The button has been playing a ton of hands, and he has been notorious for slowplaying his big hands. He's a good player, but very aggro, and not aggro enough when he has a big hand.

He would never make an all-in like that on the flop with a big hand. I think it's pretty obvious he's on a draw. He could just have ace high, or JT for a straight draw, but I think a flush draw is by far the most likely hand for him.

I have 6 outs to make a pair (4 if he has a flush draw), a back door straight draw, and a back door flush draw (which is unfortunately no good when he also has a flush draw.)

Also, and I understand this isn't common, but the fact that he may be on a complete bluff also gives me some chance of splitting the pot if say a 2 and an ace come on the turn/river (or something similar).

Let's not forget how much money is in the pot already as well. My pot odds can't be ignored.

Yes, I know this spot is -ev, but given I have so many different ways to win, and my pot odds, it's barely -ev.

The idea behind this play is to set up a profitable image. Players will stop bluffing vs me making my river decisions very easy, and they will make many thin value bets vs me that I will happily call with marginal hands. Also, I did bet the flop, so the players can't even respect me when I'm aggressive. By the time they figured out that I am not the player they think I am, I will already have a ton of their money.

All comments are appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($5391.25)
Button ($1071)
SB ($1285)
BB ($855.25)
Hero ($1265.75)
MP ($1069.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
Hero calls $10, 2 folds, Button calls $10, SB (poster) completes, BB raises to $30, Hero calls $30, Button calls $30, SB folds.

Flop: ($130) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $150, Button is all-in [$1031], BB folds, Hero calls $881.

Turn: ($1161) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($1161) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $1161

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3c 4s (two pair, fours and threes).
Button has 8c Tc (high card, queen).
Outcome: Hero wins $1161. 

Edit: for some reason the all-in wasn't showing from the converter.
Edit: Ugh. I messed up when I manually put the all-in in the hand. It was the button who shoved.

LuvDemNutz · #2 05-26-2005, 04:58 PM

I can't follow the action -

Benal · #3 05-26-2005, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't follow the action -

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing button pushed, and Justin, ummmmmm, called?

mgsimpleton · #4 05-26-2005, 05:02 PM

i'm confused about the flop action. you bet 150, then bb puts you all-in?

as it is, i realllly don't like it. he could be 'bluffing' with 9x of clubs or something like that. even if your read is dead on, you're still -EV, as you said... but if it isn't you could be drawing nearly dead.

of course it's another story if you put him all-in so can you clear that one up?

drexah · #5 05-26-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($130) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $150, BB is all-in [$1031], BB folds, Hero calls $881.

[/ QUOTE ]

??? bisonbison's converter screws up a lot.

Popinjay · #6 05-26-2005, 05:04 PM

I think you have vastly overestimated your EV here.

Here are the results of some calcs I ran on PokerStove (from the flop):

if he has:

JdTd he is 75.808% to win
Ad5d he is 73.636% to win

even if he has 5d6d he is 68.939% to win

In summary I think this play is not good given that the loss in EV even in the best case scenarios is too great to overcome possible future +EV that might come from your image.

Yeti · #7 05-26-2005, 05:06 PM

Did you really just call $900 more with 4 high?

ZeeJustin · #8 05-26-2005, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Did you really just call $900 more with 4 high?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread my post. There's more to poker than just your hand. There are draws, bluffs and pot odds in this hand. Most importantly though, it was an image play. You need to start thinking on the next level.

Yeti · #9 05-26-2005, 05:08 PM

Heh. Ok.

Popinjay · #10 05-26-2005, 05:12 PM

Do you really think this is that profitable an image play too? I mean if there was a guy who I knew was calling all-ins with 4 high on the flop I'd just play tight, wait for two-pair or better, then cash in! Maybe some people would start putting you in with middle pair but smart players wouldn't just because they know they can wait for much better spots.