Slim Value bet?

ArturiusX · #1 06-04-2005, 10:50 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ????

Opponent is a nice 40/5 average player.

wildwood · #2 06-05-2005, 01:11 AM

Doesn't seem like a good value bet here when the ace falls on the river after the king turn card. (In the games I play in, lots of people play ace rag, but king rag is not as likely) If you bet and get called or raised, you're going to see a better hand most of the time in my opinion. I would check behind and show it down. (I think the chances are less than 50% of betting and getting called by a worse hand) fwiw

einbert · #3 06-05-2005, 01:18 AM

Does he defend his SB often?

I think this is close but I probably bet it.

aK13 · #4 06-05-2005, 01:36 AM

I'd probably check behind here.

Backstabr · #5 06-05-2005, 01:39 AM

Check behind. What could he call with that you beat? May if his went to showdown stat is way high.

If he c/r's, its a pretty clear fold.

Buckmulligan · #6 06-05-2005, 01:55 AM

I think there is no value in betting here for value, but perhaps a very small amount in betting to fold QJ. Still, though, we check.

einbert · #7 06-05-2005, 02:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does he defend his SB often?

I think this is close but I probably bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still close, but I check behind. Villian might very well fold a 66-TT that was played this way to our river bet.

Catt · #8 06-05-2005, 02:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does he defend his SB often?

I think this is close but I probably bet it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still close, but I check behind. Villian might very well fold a 66-TT that was played this way to our river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice point. I check behind here - not out of fear of Villain holding an ace but because he almost certainly folds to a river bet if he is actually beat.

hmkpoker · #9 06-05-2005, 02:36 AM

Something to keep in mind when choosing between a value bet and a free showdown-

1) Are you more than 50% sure that you're ahead?
2) If you're behind, how likely is it that the hand that he has that beats you is very strong and he's planning a check-raise?

I personally would take the showdown. There's a lot he could have called down, including an ace. You're basically hoping he called a small pocket or a worse flop pair.

ArturiusX · #10 06-05-2005, 03:09 AM

Yeah I checked, he showed T5 and MHIG