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#1
06-02-2005, 05:09 PM
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My Baseball System
Go through every game without looking at line. Circle every game I see as a coinflip or close to it. Bet any game +120 or better.
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#2
06-02-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: My Baseball System
That sounds very logical in theory (and basically how I bet when I do bet baseball) however dont you think that professional book makers know why one team should win what you see as a coin flip situation?
Ken
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#3
06-02-2005, 08:22 PM
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Re: My Baseball System
[ QUOTE ]
dont you think that professional book makers know why one team should win what you see as a coin flip situation? [/ QUOTE ] No. They are swayed by public opinion. Take the Yankees and Toronto for example. They both have basically the same record but the Yankees will almost always be more heavily favored than Toronto even though they don't neccessarily deserve to be. I make my own lines for every game. I think they are more accurate than the actual lines. Usually about 50% of them are dead on the screws with the actual line. About 25% offer some bettable divergances and another 25% usually offer some very big edges. 98% of the betting public doesn't understand the moneyline, how to calculate the moneyline or what it really means in terms of percentages. They also don't know how to calculate a reasonable expectation for a game to be played. So when they see a names like Randy Johnson or Roger Clemens, or a big teams like the Cardinals or Boston or the Yankees, or bottom teams like KC or Colorado or Tampa they often start to grossly over and underestimate things without so much as ever taking a calculator to it or even understanding what kind of percentages they they are betting. And this is why there is so much opportunity in baseball wagering. It's getting an edge against the line because nobody can pick winners enough to beat the line. But if you can identify the bad lines you are on to something.
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#4
06-02-2005, 08:26 PM
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Re: My Baseball System
True...and many reasons for a line...Ex, last week, I circled MY Mets (Benson) @ Fla (Willis)...I knew FLA would, and should be favored, but I go to bet and see NY +180. Seemed crazy to me. I took NY, they won. It's been working for me so whgat the hell. I guess my pt is that you don't want to be betting on big favorites like most do. When I take the "dog" I always feel like I'm with the smart money.
I saw a piece on some show. Oddsmakers said they basically make the line as big as possible because they know the "public" bets favorites. I am 99% on the dogs....
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#5
06-02-2005, 08:32 PM
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Re: My Baseball System
Mr. Baseball, and of the 3 remaining games have mispriced lines in your opinion? I may take Chicago, I had it circuled as a coinflip and Chi is +124
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#6
06-02-2005, 08:47 PM
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Re: My Baseball System
[ QUOTE ]
of the 3 remaining games [/ QUOTE ] LA/MIL - no action (see other post) TOR/OAK - I see value in TOR at +103 CHI/SD - I see value in CHI at +123 Typically I don't post picks unless I actually breakdown all the whys and wherefores. I see these 2 as value plays but not neccessarily big edge but bettable edge none the less. But since it's late and I don't have time for a writeup here you go. Good luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#7
06-03-2005, 12:16 AM
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Re: My Baseball System
I agree with the dogs. I rarely bet baseball as I see summer as poker season, and college basketball, and football as my major wagering times.
However, I only bet games at -110 or with a take back. I also understand that odds makers play to public opinion, but when something looks pretty straight forward on paper (a close game) but the line doesnt reflect that their is usually something I have missed. Ken
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#8
06-03-2005, 09:52 AM
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Re: My Baseball System
I don't bet baseball much, but I have learned to bet the opposite of Kevroc. Seriously. That's my system lately.
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