Turn semi-bluff heads up

[ElAnimal]

Villian is 40/9/0.5 after 30 hands. Considering he three-bet me preflop, is the turn semi-bluff raise still a good play?


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Standard, right?

Turn: (4.66 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls.

I've got at least 12 rock solid outs at this point (unless he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). Considering he 3-bet me preflop, I think giving myself two additional outs for the overcards would be generous. I think I've got fold equity against a lot of hands that beat me right now (non-heart AK, AQ, AJs, maybe even something like 88) Bad semi-bluff? If so, please explain.

[Roland19]

I don't really like it. I don't think your opponent is gonna fold often enough to be profitable. But then again, my opinion could be influenced by him calling you, which is one reason we generally don't post results. I think it's better to just save yourself one big bet and just call here.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad semi-bluff? If so, please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Limp Re-raise- I think your toast.

your hand has 0 showdown value in my opinion, so that means you have to bet and he has to fold for you to win. (assuming you go unimproved)

Chip Spew I think. To many things need to happen.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[ElAnimal]

[ QUOTE ]
Limp Re-raise-

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the limp. I think that's the difference maker.

[ QUOTE ]
your hand has 0 showdown value in my opinion, so that means you have to bet and he has to fold for you to win. (assuming you go unimproved)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's the obvious risk associated with just about any semi-bluff. You're right—if he doesn't fold, I lose unless I hit one of 12 cards on the river. It's how often he'll fold relative to pot size that I'm trying to figure. Your first point about the limp reraise, makes me think now that he won't fold enough for this bluff to be profitable.

Thanks for your help.