Final Table hand

Pat Southern · #1 05-31-2005, 09:05 PM

This hand really had me confused, I couldn't imagine folding after getting this flop, but I don't have much FE. Comments on the PF call, and the flop check, along with my action after the bet would be appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t1377)
MP1 (t12240)
MP2 (t9700)
CO (t15682)
Button (t6580)
SB (t7861)
Hero (t10560)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG pushes for 1377, MP1 calls t1377, MP2 calls t1377, 3 folds, Hero calls t577.

Flop: (t4531) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)

checked to MP2, he bets 4k, hero....

A_PLUS · #2 05-31-2005, 09:12 PM

Even giving him a VERY tight range of overpairs and sets, this is still a push. I think you can probably throw in some pairs under 8s, and A8, KQc.

rockythecat99 · #3 05-31-2005, 09:16 PM

I push here.This flop is as good as it gets for your hand. If you just call and the turn comes a blank or an overcard you will still be faced with a huge bet from villain and you have just placed yourself in the same position as before. If you push now you are guaranteed to see the next two cards in case you are behind. Looks to me like he is trying to steal this pot as he sees a bunch of low cards and checked to him. He probably has you on some high cards and decides he can win this pot with a bluff. I push here because I am only behind to an overpair or a set. To an overpair I have 14 outs and against a set(highly unlikely but possible) I have 9 outs, 11 if his set is not a set of 88's. Call is fine preflop I think as you have great expressed and implied odds in the case the flop hits you the way it did. Of course I am not that good so take my advice for what its worth. I would like to hear what more experienced players have to say.

Lloyd · #4 05-31-2005, 09:37 PM

I'm going back and forth on this hand - push, call, or fold. Pushing might win the hand right then. And if you're behind you're a coin flip with good odds and 2 cards to come. Calling might induce him to push the turn if a club doesn't hit with the 2nd best hand. If you push, I doubt if he'll fold a set (and I think a set is the most likely hand you're up against). And if you're up against a set you only have 9 outs twice. You'd be a 30/70 dog and not getting good enough odds. I'm trying to think of what hands you're ahead here. Maybe A3s or A5s but that's about it. And I'm ruling out a bluff since there's an all-in player.

I normally advocate pushing with a pair and the nut flush draw. But you're not even getting good enough odds if you're up against a set. The only way playing out this hand is +EV is if you think there's a decent probability of him making this play with A5s. I can't believe I'm saying this as I'm no where near a wimp on flops like this but I think it's a fold, especially given the lack of folding equity.

Lloyd · #5 05-31-2005, 09:40 PM

By the way, I did consider an overpair like 99 but it doesn't change my opinion much. And I don't think it's likely he limped with AA-TT. Even 99 is a stretch.

Pat Southern · #6 05-31-2005, 09:48 PM

My main concern about this hand is whether chipEV=$EV in this situation. It wasn't a big field tournament 8 places were paid and its the standard payout structure. The reason I brought up this hand is because I thought it was clearly +chipEV (I'm a favorite against an overpair, plus the nice sidepot almost makes it worth it even if the opponent has a set-I wasn't concerned about UTG since he would be pushing with such a wide range that I can assume that most of the time I already have him beat) and I almost always go by that, but I think I've been neglecting the situations where chipEV diverges from $EV, and was wondering if it applied in this situation.

LethalRose · #7 05-31-2005, 09:51 PM

push

Lloyd · #8 05-31-2005, 09:57 PM

Yes, CEV and $EV converge at this point. And while you're right about being a favorite against an overpair, you've got to be concerned about a set which you're not a favorite against, and do not have odds to push into even with the dead money.

Before deciding on what to do, you need to put him on a range of hands. What do you think he could have?

ThrillFactor · #9 05-31-2005, 10:04 PM

If you fold you're in 4th with 6 left (I'm assuming MP2 will knock out the all-in).

If you push and MP2 folds, you're in 1st by 1-2K with 6 left (again assuming you knock out the all-in). If all-in does happen to beat you, you still pick up MP2's 4K for a net gain in chips.

If you push, mp2 calls, and you lose then you're prob out in 6th.

If you push, MP2 calls, and you win then you're huge with a 10BB lead over 2nd place.

I'm pushing.

A_PLUS · #10 05-31-2005, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe A3s or A5s but that's about it. And I'm ruling out a bluff since there's an all-in player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, you think you are more likely to see A3 A5, than 66, 77? Or even KQs. Given that we have A8c, I think A3 and A5 are somewhat long shots.

Good point about the higher pairs being ruled out, I agree. Dont know how I missed that.