AA w/ the kind of flop that STACKS ppl

Malachii · #1 05-28-2005, 07:25 PM

No reads on Villain because this was like my sixth hand at the table, and I was 3 tabling at the time. What the hell do I do with this flop?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (10 handed) converter

Button ($56.15)
SB ($47)
BB ($47.5)
UTG ($54.6)
UTG+1 ($60.75)
UTG+2 ($23.5)
MP1 ($103.35)
MP2 ($54)
MP3 ($45.3)
Hero ($48.9)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $5.

Flop: ($17.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $10, Hero...

edge · #2 05-28-2005, 07:31 PM

Well, with 12 nut outs, and quite probably two A outs, you certainly can't fold this. You're probably behind a set on the flop, so I like calling. It may be difficult to get the money in if you hit though.

Finite_Risk · #3 05-28-2005, 07:35 PM

Cool hand...I'm raising here...and not afraid to call a push. Assuming villan is not a total moron and called your re-raise pre-flop with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs or AK...you are a solid favorite here (61% per pokerstove). If you call tough to get another buck if heart falls

If you drop out the AKs and AK from his range of hands, you are actually a slight dog here, even with all those outs (editing made me maybe change my mind to calling?)

TexArcher · #4 05-28-2005, 07:40 PM

With an overpair and 14 solid outs, I'm opening or raising every time.

DoubleDown · #5 05-28-2005, 07:49 PM

raise to $25-30ish, planning to call a push

i would consider the other 2 A's, 4 T's, and any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as outs.

should he flat call the flop raise, I think I call/push all-in on the turn being pot-committed (and not getting the rest of villain's stack should I hit any of my outs on the river)

Malachii · #6 05-28-2005, 07:51 PM

I don't like calling here because of the reverse implied odds. If another heart hits on fourth street, Villain is shutting down. If a heart doesn't hit, he's probably setting me all in if he has a set/two pair (which he almost certainly does with that flop.)

FreakDaddy · #7 05-28-2005, 08:01 PM

As I'm sure you know it's unlikely villian has flush, so now you have to decide if you're up against TPTK or trips. The other remote possibility is open ended straight draw. With your royal flush draw and top pair, you're a favorite against everything except for trips. There could be a case made for either of these plays as I see it.

1) Flat call and use your position to see the turn. Villian will likely push on the turn if a blank hits and he has trips.

2) Push now and hope you're not against trips.

I don't see mini-raising as very good here, although it does have some solid lines possibilities, but I wouldn't get too fancy here.

All things considered my line would be to flat call the flop. You could still be ahead, you could complete your flush on the turn... of course you're probably not going to get paid off if you do.

The only reason against pushing as I see it here is that the only hand that's calling you is trips. Unless he's a real weak player I don't see AK calling here. So by pushing, you're putting yourself in a likely underdog sceanrio, BUT you'll win more IF you hit your draw. The risk/reward for a push is marginal here. Like I said, you're probably only getting called with trips, but if you hit your draw you know you're getting paid off. On the other hand falt calling and using your position allows for a wider range of possibilities for you.

Malachii · #8 05-28-2005, 08:02 PM

Interesting thing I just thought of. Party has a high hand jackpot, so if I hit the ten of hearts here I'm making like several grand. That has some obvious implications in how I should play this hand.

FreakDaddy · #9 05-28-2005, 08:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise to $25-30ish, planning to call a push

i would consider the other 2 A's, 4 T's, and any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as outs.

should he flat call the flop raise, I think I call/push all-in on the turn being pot-committed (and not getting the rest of villain's stack should I hit any of my outs on the river)

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that a 25-30$ raise makes hero pot commitied any ways right? This is either a push or call scenario.

Finite_Risk · #10 05-28-2005, 08:05 PM

Interesting decision for villian if you just push right here...hero reraised preflop...what if villian has JJ? Is the push enough for him to think hero has KK and doesn't want another heart out? Would he muck (doubt it)?

If I had JJ I would probably call a push, but my eyes would be closed as I did it. For that scenario, there is a distinct possiblity I'm buried by QQ or KK