Reading hands (Pruitt), Pt. 2

[tipperdog]

I liked this piece, but believe the author failed to address one key factor on the second hand discussed. (In that hand, our hero was the PF raiser with AJ. He flopped top-two, raised a flop bet and bet the turn when checked to. When a 8 that completed straight and flush draws rivered, he was check-raised. Our hero deduced that his opponent had A8, and therefore, he should reraise).

The thought process used to deduce villan's hand was excellent, but Pruitt failed to ask this question: Will my opponent call if I 3-bet?

At this point, hero's hand looks to villan like aces or jacks (raise preflop and bet/raise at every subsequent opportunity). I know many players who can let go of aces up to a river 3-bet in this spot.

In his piece, Pruitt writes:
[ QUOTE ]

The correct play is to re-raise. (Even though we can never be completely sure what his hand is, he only has to have two-pair 67 percent of the time to make re-raising more profitable than just calling.)


[/ QUOTE ]

But that's only true if villan will call when beaten. If he's good enough to muck when beaten and cap when ahead, flat calling villain's raise is unquestionably the right play.

To be clear: I think that 3-betting is probably correct against most opponents (though not all). But at the very least, thinking about your opponent's response to a 3-bet should be a part of the decision-making process.

[slavic]

Note that the type of opponent described is not the type to:
a) let go of Aces up.
b) think at the level you are thinking.

The type of opponent that you describe is thinking at a different level and would be labeled as tougher competition that you need to consider differently. Also not that if he is tougher he likely won't be in this hand with A8s or A8o, in a semi aggressive to aggressive midlimit game under the gun. Trust me if Drew is in it this game fits those criteria.

[The Dude]

Do you realize how very few opponents are able to value check-raise a river and fold to a 3-bet? Hell, I can't get 2+2'ers to make that fold when I suggest it in the SS forum, and virtually all of the really tough opponents I've faced in Mid-stakes games are 2+2'ers.

Yes, whether an opponent is going to call or not is a factor that needs to be considered when you decide if you're going to raise. However, in this specific hand, finding an opponent that will check-raise and fold to a 3-bet with A8s (which might very well be the best line for him) is very, very rarely going to happen, even in mid-stakes games.

[allintuit]

Agreed, not too many are capable of making that play.

[ricochet420]

I know I sure as h3ll could not.[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, not too many are capable of making that play.

[/ QUOTE ]