Common Situation

[David Sklansky]

10-20 Holdem. Capped pot is about $200 preflop. Flop is 222 or thereabouts. Player to your right bets with what you are sure is an overpair, probably high. Players to your left don't figure to have pocket pairs and will fold to a raise. You have pocket tens. Approximately how high must your chances be of having the best hand to make it correct to raise if you think you will usually be reraised?

[GOODBEATGUY2001]

If you are UTG, if the capping was done by either or both blinds who are known tight aggressives you are probably the underdog to a higher pocket pair but not likely to an Ace 2 suited. If you are in one of the blinds, you may be looking at a steal raise after the flop and therefore a raise may be in order to gain more info. If you are in mid or late position and there are 4 or more callers/raisers coming from earlier positions, I'd fold.

[msk]

About 20-25% of the time.

Mark Krieger

[budman]

Right now you are getting 10.5 to 1 on your raise. If you plan on getting three bet and calling down to the river, you are looking at betting a total of $70 to win what will be a $340 pot if nothing but bricks fall.

You need to win slightly more than 1 out of 6 times (17%) to make this a profitable play - win once =$340, lose 5 times =$350.

[Rick Nebiolo]

If I read this correctly, you are saying there is some small chance you already beat the bettor, but could also suck out when behind by hitting a ten. Your raise narrows it down to head up with the bettor, helping you tremendously when are ahead, and probably helping you more easily get two shots at your ten when you are behind (you don’t fear a raise behind when you are bet into again on the turn). The downside is you win less when you spike your ten and collect extra bets from a large field. But this should cancel out so a raise is almost certainly correct.

If you had no chance of being ahead now, you still are only about 11 to 1 against sucking out a ten. It will cost you $50 on the flop and turn and you figure to win about $300 when you spike a ten when behind. Obviously, you need to be ahead some of the time.

If you are ahead 10% of the time figure 22 events. You win $270 about twice by being ahead, $300 or so twice by sucking out, and lose $50 eighteen times (the river action should wash when he bets and could be bluffing so you call). This puts you up about $240 over 22 events or $11 per event. Obviously, you don’t need to be ahead anywhere near this often.

If you are ahead 5% of the time once again figure 22 events. You win $270 once by being ahead, $300 or so twice by sucking out, and lose $50 nineteen times (now you fold on the river if he bets again). This puts you down about $80 over 22 events or $3 per event.

Using a combination of my warped math and logic, it seems the answer is very close to six percent. But there must be an easier way of figuring this.

Regards,

Rick

[mikelow]

Apart from the times you suck out and catch a ten, raising will
keep the others from spiking an ace or paint which would beat you.

Let's say that the bettor's big pairs (four of those) are three times as likely as his smaller pairs (eight of those). I'm ignoring the small chance has has tens also. So you are 3-2 underdog. By raising you improve your chances to 40%, by driving the others out.

If you raise, and get reraised, and call the river, it will cost you
4BB. The pot will have 18BB in it. So I'd say you would need
an 18.2% chance of winning to make the raise correct.

[mikelow]

Actually there are only seven smaller pairs, so that lowers your chances to 37%.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[I realized I made at least one mistake in my post above so I’m trying again. I figured that I would lose only $50 on the hands that I lose when I had a ten percent chance of being ahead when I actually lose $70 since I call the river bet. Here is the corrected version.]

If I read this correctly, you are saying there is some small chance you already beat the bettor, but could also suck out when behind by hitting a ten. Your raise narrows it down to head up with the bettor, helping you tremendously when are ahead, and probably helping you more easily get two shots at your ten when you are behind (you don’t fear a raise behind when you are bet into again on the turn). The downside is you win less when you spike your ten and collect extra bets from a large field. But this should cancel out so a raise is almost certainly correct.

If you had no chance of being ahead now, you still are only about 11 to 1 against sucking out a ten. It will cost you $50 on the flop and turn (you fold the river) and you figure to win about $300 when you spike a ten when behind. Obviously, you need to be ahead some of the time.

If you are ahead about 10% of the time you can figure your chances over 22 events. You win $270 about twice by being ahead (you never put in a raise unless you hit a ten), $300 or so twice by sucking out, and lose $70 eighteen times (you call the river bet since he will be betting a worse pair enough to merit the call). This puts you down about $120 over 22 events or about $5 per event. Obviously, you need to be ahead more often.

If you are ahead about 15% of the time once again figure 22 events. You win $270 about three times by being ahead, $300 or so twice by sucking out, and lose $70 seventeen times (this assumes he bets and you call the river). This puts you up about $220 over 22 events or $10 per event.

Since being ahead 10% of the time puts down $5 per event and being ahead 15% of the time puts you up $10 per event the correct answer appears to be about 12% of the time.

There must be an easier way of figuring this at the table. Gee, I need to work on my math and logic but I gotta go now!

Regards,

Rick