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#1
05-26-2005, 08:29 PM
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Another hand from How good is your limit hold\'em
15/30 game. Hero is in the BB with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Very loose passive, 4 or 5 players seeing the flop on average for a single bet, no raising.
Early & middle player limps, small blind completes. Hero checks 4 small bets, Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and its checked around. 2 big bets, Turn is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB checks, Hero - checks or bets? TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 
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#4
05-26-2005, 08:44 PM
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Re: Another hand from How good is your limit hold\'em
I say bet. I steal all the time in LP games. It works in small pots when everyone checked the flop. The reason is how LPs think. They think, "The pot is big, I have X backdoor draw, and I've already put X bets in the pot. One more won't break the bank." But when none of the players has any commitment to the pot, and it is only offering them 3:1, they all fold at least 50% of the time here.
Compounding these facts is that the 2 turned. You were BB. You could easily have a 2, meaning callers are drawing dead. There are virtually no possible draws on the board. You only need to win this 1/3 times to make it a breakeven proposition. I say you win it 50% of the time.
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#5
05-26-2005, 08:53 PM
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Re: Another hand from How good is your limit hold\'em
[ QUOTE ]
You were BB. You could easily have a 2, meaning callers are drawing dead. There are virtually no possible draws on the board. You only need to win this 1/3 times to make it a breakeven proposition. I say you win it 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Bingo. Hero is getting 2:1 on his or her bet here to take the pot down, but is 2:1 worth the risk? Will hero really win this pot more than 50% of the time? What if we replaced the deuces, and made it another non-threatening card such as a 6 instead? I have always checked, the size of the pot has been too small for me to take the risk. I think I have been playing this hand incorrectly. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#6
05-26-2005, 08:56 PM
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Re: Another hand from How good is your limit hold\'em
It's probably worth betting if you're the BB here. I would not have bet if I was the SB.
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#7
05-26-2005, 08:57 PM
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Re: Another hand from How good is your limit hold\'em
Three factors matter: (1) the size of the field; (2) the credibility of you representing trips 2s; and (3) your opponents tendency to call.
This is a large field to bet into. You must bluff out 3 players. This factor weighs against betting. However, the credibility of your bluff is good. You were in the blind, and the turn paired the board with 2s. You are the most likely person to hold a two, and you could have checked the flop. Additionally, this board contains no draws and the pot is small. Thus, your normally passive opponents will be more inclined than usual to fold. On balance, I fire at the pot. However, if called in more than 1 spot, I do not fire again on the river. The problem with these hands is often that you commit yourself to firing twice when it is clearly hopeless.
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#8
05-26-2005, 08:59 PM
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Re: Another hand from How good is your limit hold\'em
[ QUOTE ]
On balance, I fire at the pot. However, if called in more than 1 spot, I do not fire again on the river. The problem with these hands is often that you commit yourself to firing twice when it is clearly hopeless. [/ QUOTE ] There's no reason whatsoever that you need to fire again on the river if you're called and don't improve. It may be worth betting again if you pair up.
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#9
05-26-2005, 09:02 PM
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Re: Another hand from How good is your limit hold\'em
I would give up on the river if called by even one of these fish. With no draws out there, it is highly unlikely that a turn call will turn into a river fold. Even fish rarely call gutshots on the turn in such a small pot.
Take your chance on the turn (and from experience, on this ideal board, you will win right here 50-70% of the time) and if someone calls he probably has an 8. No card can scare him on the river, so you check-fold the river.
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