Flopping 4 to the flush

[Drew Smith]

I'm not sure if this is right at all...

You have 2 suited, non-connected cards which gives you 11 cards to make the flush.

52 - 2 - 11 = 39

(1 - [39 * 38 / 2 * 1] / [ 50 * 49 * 48 / 3 * 2 * 1 ]) 100 = 3.77%

I've seen numbers as low as 2.2% though so I'm obviously overcompensating somewhere and I'm pretty sure it's the 1 - C(39,2) portion of the equation.

Can someone correct me or verify that equation please? Thanks in advance.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if this is right at all...

You have 2 suited, non-connected cards which gives you 11 cards to make the flush.

52 - 2 - 11 = 39

(1 - [39 * 38 / 2 * 1] / [ 50 * 49 * 48 / 3 * 2 * 1 ]) 100 = 3.77%

I've seen numbers as low as 2.2% though so I'm obviously overcompensating somewhere and I'm pretty sure it's the 1 - C(39,2) portion of the equation.

Can someone correct me or verify that equation please? Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had a typo here before.

For a 4-flush:

C(11,2)*39/C(50,3) = 10.94%

For a 4-flush or flush:

10.94% + C(11,3)/C(50,3) = 11.79%