Trips and scare card on the turn

vegasvegas · #1 05-25-2005, 01:31 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button raises, SB folds, Hero ?

The turn card completes straight and flush draws, but I figured I'd bet out to see where I'm at. I have solid outs (board pairing / 4th K), plus drawing to the second nut flush hoping the Ad isn't out there.

Toss up between call and reraise here, how do you guys feel about this ?

trentcroad · #2 05-25-2005, 01:42 PM

I think Id call and see what the river brings.
Your prob behind but you have a heap of outs.
Nice table selection though.

shark6 · #3 05-25-2005, 01:44 PM

Just call the turn raise. You don't want to give him the chance to cap with a made flush.

Checkraise river if you hit, otherwise check/call.

crunchy1 · #4 05-25-2005, 01:53 PM

I would've seriously considered check-raising the flop. 3 left to act behind you in a big pot - I really think you can expect a bet from one of them.

A read on some players would sure help. W/o it I think it's a toss up between calling down and 3-betting/calling down a cap/leading the river.

vegasvegas · #5 05-25-2005, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would've seriously considered check-raising the flop. 3 left to act behind you in a big pot - I really think you can expect a bet from one of them.

A read on some players would sure help. W/o it I think it's a toss up between calling down and 3-betting/calling down a cap/leading the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't been at the table for a long time, and didn't have a solid read other than a generic loose-passive. I was pretty sure that the button wouldn't have raised me on the turn without having a solid hand.

Pokey · #6 05-25-2005, 02:01 PM

First off: you don't have trips. You have a set. There's a big difference in terms of hand value. Trips are when there is a pair on the board and you hold a third in your hand. It is a strong holding. Sets are when you hold a pair and there is a third on the board. Sets are monster holdings.

Preflop is standard.
Flop is standard.
Turn bet is right, and reraising is right, too. You've got four opponents, 8 outs to second-nut flush, 1 out to nut flush, 9 outs to nut full house, and 1 out to (nut) quads. That's 19(!) outs to a winning hand, giving you nearly 40% pot equity EVEN IF you're behind. You've got three opponents left in the hand, so you're getting 3:1 odds when you only need 1.5:1 to make bets profitable. This is not a toss-up; it's an EASY 3-bet. Raise it up and bleed 'em dry.

Pokey · #7 05-25-2005, 02:06 PM

Crunchy:

Check-raising was my first thought, too, but when I thought about it I realized that was a bad play:
1. There's only one K left in the deck. Without it, people are going to hesitate to bet this flop.
2. Hero raised preflop. Given that, people are less likely to bet the hand for him.
3. Only four opponents are left to act, and none of them liked the hand enough to raise preflop.
4. With two diamonds on the board, anybody who doesn't have a flush draw will be hesitant to bet, and anybody with a flush draw might "wait and see the turn."
5. With two diamonds on the board, you do NOT want to give a free card, even by accident.

In this case, the risks of a check-raise attempt are outweighed by the rewards of betting out.

this guy · #8 05-25-2005, 02:15 PM

Great post man, great post.

vegasvegas · #9 05-25-2005, 02:17 PM

Thanks for the comments. I led the flop because I was afraid it might check through, with a possible 4 to a flush and 4 to a straight for AQ, AJ, QJ, J9.

Didn't think at the time that with only one more K out, the chance was slim that somebody picked up top pair and does the betting for me, but it's certainly a very good point.

I was worried about the Ad being out there, so I didn't count my second nut flush outs and ended up just calling the turn raise.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button raises, SB folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

River: (17.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 33.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kd Kh (full house, kings full of tens).
MP1 has 7d 5d (flush, ten high).
CO has Tc Ad (three of a kind, tens).
Button has Qd Jd (flush, queen high).
Outcome: Hero wins 33.50 BB. 

I decided to lead the river, since I worried that it might get checked through after the board pairing.

nickg1532 · #10 05-25-2005, 02:17 PM

Yeah, I was thinking about 3 betting for value here too. You still might be ahead of a smaller set or 2 pair, and even if you're behind any flush besides the nut flush you have 17 outs to improve. As long as you get two people to come along this is a nice value raise, and if all 3 stick around even better. If you get capped just call the river UI