Raising the river with AA

kurosh · #1 05-22-2005, 10:57 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (20 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB raises, MP calls, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB caps, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP calls, Hero calls.

River: (19.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP calls, Hero raises

River raise good? Yes? No?

TStoneMBD · #2 05-22-2005, 11:03 AM

no good imo. i suppose you were planning on folding to a 3bet. if not its even worse. the pot is also too big to reliably fold to a 3bet, especially since it appears that you dont have reads or stats. only hand the 8 counterfeits is KQ.

Nick Royale · #3 05-22-2005, 11:06 AM

Could BB cap a flush draw 3-way on this flop? Could he have called PF with KK/QQ? Reads? I guess we can assume he's not Einstein, unless he's holding 88 which would have played this hand pretty well.

Since we just passed his most likely holding (KQ) I think the raise is ok. But this really require a read.

Nick Royale · #4 05-22-2005, 11:08 AM

And the other possible hands villain might hold is? 88 for 1 combo. A, IMO, pretty crappy played FD. A strangely played KK/QQ. I would like a read to raise this, though. Without it I'm calling.

kurosh · #5 05-22-2005, 11:13 AM

Yeah, good points. I don't think raising is a good idea here either on second thought. I didn't raise it when I played the hand but afterwards, I thought I should've. I really am way too results orientated.

I've found myself looking at stats less and less lately. I do have his stats up on GT+ when I'm playing but I don't look at it.

TStoneMBD · #6 05-22-2005, 11:15 AM

you dont pay attention to stats? how many tables are you playing?

kurosh · #7 05-22-2005, 11:16 AM

4. I look occasionally for some close PF decisions but I'm finding that the majority of decisions don't need a read or a very general one that I can pick up on.

arkady · #8 05-22-2005, 03:05 PM

I think I would like it better if it was just against the SB as his hand is defined more clearly...but seeing that 8 helps you more than it hurts you I like it. BB could have QK/AQ/AK just as easily as SB. Not sure what the deal with MP is, but he doesnt seem too confident about his holding.

Trix · #9 05-22-2005, 06:58 PM

Wont he lead the flop usually if he has some kind of monster, rather than CRing the field ?

Overplayed AK seems alot likely to me.

I dont get why you raise the river rather than the turn here, I guess it´s because you have him on KQ, which is fair enough, but you have 14 outs against that hand on the turn, which means you are 2.3:1 to improve, 11 against a set, which is 3.2:1, so since it´s 3way it really doesn´t cost much to make a mistake on this street compared to the next and KQ may not even 3bet you here anyway, same with 88 if he is a bit weak.
The only reason to wait till the river is if you know the guy very well and can fold to a 3bet. I´d image counterfit KQ might be pissed enough to make some kind of desperation bluff here and if he has played AK that hard, then I´m not sure I would trust him not to be stupid either getting above 25:1.

You like his flop line if he has KQ or 88 ?