You make the continuation bluff, he calls, and you hit the turn...

MLerra · #1 05-18-2005, 11:36 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

SB ($105.3)
BB ($135.05)
Hero ($99)
UTG+1 ($108.8)
UTG+2 ($91.87)
MP1 ($116.9)
MP2 ($236.12)
MP3 ($121.3)
CO ($66.12)
Button ($97.1)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5. CO posts a blind of $1.
Hero raises to $4, 5 folds, CO (poster) calls $3, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $8, CO calls $8.

Turn: ($25.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15, CO calls $15.

River: ($55.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $20, Hero calls $20.

Final Pot: $95.50

Let me preface this by saying, I rarely bluff a flop in which there are two face cards and I have neither. And I really really never do this out of position.

One of the biggest flaws in my game, that I can see (which means it's pretty freaking glaring) is that I cannot let go of hands like this where my flop bet is called and I hit the turn. I've lost full buyins by hitting a Q on the turn with AQ I don't know how many times. It's TERRIBLE. I just somehow convince myself that the turn made my hand better than theirs.

Here, for example, I saw the flop and almost checked out of fear of QJ, or more likely, AQ or AJ even - both of these would be big favorites over me.

Then the turn K hit, and all of a sudden I'm putting him on AQ for sure (for no apparent reason except that I WANT him to have AQ) and I'm thinking I'm way ahead. How would you guys have played this?

I feel like it's a pretty common situation we face as continuation-betters. And it's definitely been -EV for me thus far.

salloch · #2 05-18-2005, 11:54 PM

First- i do the same thing, and have been working on this exact leak.

I think that up to the river things are okay. He's just calling after all. But when he calls on the turn, you have a problem.

I think that as soon as you check the river, you are though with this hand. You have to resign yourself to the fact that if he bets, you really can't call. If he has a little something to showdown, he'll just check behind you on this board. If you're going to play this at all on the river, you could consider a blocking bet (an amount that you'll call anyway). But if he re-raises, you have to let it go.

Another thing that can help put things in perspective on the end when facing a large bet is... what kind of odds would an impartial observer (who knows my cards, and has obeserved all the action) want in order to bet $20 (or whatever) straight up that I'll win the hand?

-salloch

xorbie · #3 05-19-2005, 01:16 AM

This is a check/fold type flop, specifically because even improving to an A or K on the turn puts you in an ugly situation OOP>

TheWorstPlayer · #4 05-19-2005, 01:59 AM

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I think that up to the river things are okay. He's just calling after all. But when he calls on the turn, you have a problem.

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In general, I try not to make any bets where I have a problem if they get called. When that is the case, it means it was a bluff essentially. And I don't bluff at SSNL. But you are right. You DO have a problem when you get called on the turn. Therefore, I think the turn is a check/call instead of a bet. Nobody who can't beat TPTK is going to call two barrels here with a KQJx board. So check the turn. Hope he checks his Qx or whatever behind and then make a blocking bet on the river.

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This is a check/fold type flop

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This can't be true. How many hands do you call a raise with preflop that has a Q or a J in it? For me it is QQ/JJ and that is pretty much it. Much more likely that he has something like 44 and he will muck to your continuation bet with two overs on the board. I almost never check/fold HU after raising preflop and don't see why this is a situation to do so.

-Skeme- · #5 05-19-2005, 08:28 AM

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This can't be true. How many hands do you call a raise with preflop that has a Q or a J in it? For me it is QQ/JJ and that is pretty much it. Much more likely that he has something like 44 and he will muck to your continuation bet with two overs on the board. I almost never check/fold HU after raising preflop and don't see why this is a situation to do so.

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I concur.

Finite_Risk · #6 05-19-2005, 08:34 AM

Another leaker here in this situation....best advice I got on this spot was "try not to play huge pots with only one pair"....seems to have helped

MLerra · #7 05-19-2005, 08:48 AM

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This can't be true. How many hands do you call a raise with preflop that has a Q or a J in it? For me it is QQ/JJ and that is pretty much it.

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Same with me... BUT I'm not playing against you or me, I'm playing against the average Party Poker player. In hindsight, it was a check/fold turn for me, even though it gave me TPTK. That's how I SHOULD play it, and how I want to play it. I just wanted to make sure you guys suggested the same thing. Often I find by reading here that I'm a lot tighter and less aggressive than the average player here... and when I try playing more aggressive, it is almost invariably adding $ to my winrate. So I wanted to know if common opinion matched my rational belief that folding was best.

He showed QJ. Nice bet on the river, enough that I would call it and near the maximum I would have called.

ScottTheFish · #8 05-19-2005, 09:45 AM

TWP, I respect your game, but I'm confused by your post here. Can you clarify? How can both of these be true?

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In general, I try not to make any bets where I have a problem if they get called. When that is the case, it means it was a bluff essentially. And I don't bluff at SSNL.

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I almost never check/fold HU after raising preflop

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Are you just not classifying a continuation bet as a "bluff"?