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  #1  
Old 05-15-2005, 02:40 PM
brettbrettr brettbrettr is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1
Default big draw in a biggish pot I\'m folding

So, I'm no good at math. I folded this b/c I smalled a set and figured even if I made my hand I could expect some redraws. Assuming the guys who bet/raised the flop called, I'd be getting 19:3 which is enough to draw to my straight. But I figured the diamonds were tainted but I have no idea how to discount for someone drawing for the boat. So, math guys, help a brother out. You could also tell me if you think this was a bad fold.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button folds, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.
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  #2  
Old 05-15-2005, 02:51 PM
Little Fishy Little Fishy is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: MA, and NY for school
Posts: 8
Default Re: big draw in a biggish pot I\'m folding

fold is good

you have 6 outs, it's likely to get capped so that's 4 into a pot of 19-22 so that 1:5 or &lt;1:6 to hit a non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 or T on the turn. and even if you do hit you have reverse implied odds because there will still be about 14 cards that might hit on the river posibly making you a loser anyway.

so nice fold
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  #3  
Old 05-15-2005, 03:54 PM
TheDelChop TheDelChop is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 81
Default Re: big draw in a biggish pot I\'m folding

Yeah this is a solid fold I think.

My odds calculator tells me you are only a 15.9% chance to win on the flop and if you turn a straight you are only a 55% chance to win. This means that you should not be calling 3 to win 16 (18.75%) when you are only a 15.9% to win. I think that if you look at it directly and figure that your implied odds will be cancelled out by the times you get redrawn out on it an easy fold.
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