#1
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big draw in a biggish pot I\'m folding
So, I'm no good at math. I folded this b/c I smalled a set and figured even if I made my hand I could expect some redraws. Assuming the guys who bet/raised the flop called, I'd be getting 19:3 which is enough to draw to my straight. But I figured the diamonds were tainted but I have no idea how to discount for someone drawing for the boat. So, math guys, help a brother out. You could also tell me if you think this was a bad fold.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls. Flop: (10.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button folds, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls. |
#2
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Re: big draw in a biggish pot I\'m folding
fold is good
you have 6 outs, it's likely to get capped so that's 4 into a pot of 19-22 so that 1:5 or <1:6 to hit a non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 or T on the turn. and even if you do hit you have reverse implied odds because there will still be about 14 cards that might hit on the river posibly making you a loser anyway. so nice fold |
#3
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Re: big draw in a biggish pot I\'m folding
Yeah this is a solid fold I think.
My odds calculator tells me you are only a 15.9% chance to win on the flop and if you turn a straight you are only a 55% chance to win. This means that you should not be calling 3 to win 16 (18.75%) when you are only a 15.9% to win. I think that if you look at it directly and figure that your implied odds will be cancelled out by the times you get redrawn out on it an easy fold. |
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