Bad river bet?

[hurlyburly]

Latched onto a high-only hand in Hi-lo:

7 Card Stud High-Low ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (hand converter)

Seat 1: ($21.65)
Seat 2: ($13)
Seat 3: ($27.15)
Seat 4: ($80.95)
Seat 5: ($50.45)
Seat 6: ($15.75)
Seat 7: ($49.20)
Hero: ($14.95)

3rd Street

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street

Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street

Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks

<font color="blue"> Safe to check behind? Scared of a c/r, had him on 9s up </font>

6th Street

Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

<font color="blue"> Should I see where I stand here or go for checkdown? </font>

River

Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___raises
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

I'm holding 2 diamonds, 2 9s, dead 5 on board so I raised. Is this a mistake? Is calling the raise even worse?

I hate high-only hands, and I look like I'm leaking all over in this one, any suggestions?

[templar999]

hurly,

one of the more interesting hands i've seen, just by personal preference. hope you dont mind me taking this step by step and thinking outloud.

Third:
Your raise indicates to #6 a likely pair of queens. if he puts you rightfully on a big pair, the only hand he, if he has any understanding of the game, can conceivably call with is two baby diamonds in the hole. a pair of nines and an ace kicker is a remote possibility. you have to feel pretty good at this point. the call from #7 is worrisome. the case king in the hole? not likely, as he should have reraised with your queen showing. at this point, your guess is as good as mine. IMO, i think he's on three broadway cards, hoping to catch top pair. (AJ) in the hole is a pretty random guess.

Fourth:
your 9 on fourth further decreases the chances #6 has a pair of nines. the diamond is threatening, but your bet is good. the 10 to #7 might have helped him, though he's still not much of a threat.

Fifth:
the 5 to #6 pairing him is very threatening. i like your check behind. it gets you to sixth for free. the 8 to #7 is a total blank.

Sixth:
i dont like your bet here even with open 9's. three things. first, it's apparent that you are drawing to half the pot. both your opponents, however unlikely, have a possible low draw. second, your bet will give you no information on how to act on the river. #6, even if he has a flush, will not raise to induce an overcall from #7, who's likely drawing dead. finally, a free card may not hurt you as much since you could be far behind. also, the threat of two smaller pair cannot hurt you. i'd check and evaluate based on what #6 does. i think a check/call is preferable.

river:
i'm not really sure if a bet or a check is preferable. IMO, i dont think you can bet for value. a low from either #6 or #7 isnt going anywhere. i would check it down and pray that kings up were good.

i am curious to the results.

respectfully,
temp

[bigredlemon]

Given the way he's played his hand, it looks like he's on a draw. I think you'll probably see a fold or raise more than 33% and thus a call less than 66% of the time required for a river bet to be +EV. And that's presuming you scoop. Checking is better since he may bet into you hands that you beat, and you save a bet since he can't raise. If he acts first and checks, I would probably bet and risk a check raise however.

[hurlyburly]

#7 disconnected and was all-in for .80 preflop.

Thanks for that analysis, I didn't know if I made a mistake early or late in the hand. Raising into a Q with a 9 had me very skeptical, and his lack of reraise discounted pocket AA.

I wasn't sure about the sixth street raise. I was hoping he'd define his hand a bit more. Pairing my 9 had me seriously wondering what his hole cards were. I was way too thin on outs, though.

He had A2o in the hole and caught a 5 to beat me, God love him.

[hurlyburly]

Thanks, I'm a noob at calculating equity on the fly in S/8 with a high hand, and I like how you present that.

So you're saying that he had to give me credit for 2-pair, so any river bet from him means either he beats my Kings up, or he's got a made low, but rarely worse? Ok, I failed to view it from his perspective here...

Bah, give me small 3-straights and crazy multiway pots, this **** is hard!

[Andy B]

I think you played it fine. A good player will have you beaten going in, as there are only so many playable hands that have a Nine in them. I don't expect you to come across too many good players at this level, though, so I think you should bet your Kings-up for value on the end.

[templar999]

hurly,

jesus, i didnt realize ppl were capable of playing (A2o)9 in a game for real money and seat #7 was disconnected. sorry, i guess i'm not used to smaller online stud8 games at all. my own experience with stud8 has been in b&amp;m, where even at lower limits, the games are pretty solid. in light of this, i think you played it very well. better luck next time.

[hurlyburly]

I was surprised (and happy) by what he flipped as well. He's on my buddy list now.

I normally play tournys but decided to clear my bonus with Stud/8 for a change of pace. I may never go back.

[hurlyburly]

Thanks, Andy. I didn't have him pegged as a good player after about 100 hands together.

[mscags]

I like it. I almost always bet for value with two pair on the end. Especially at a lower limit like this a lot of people will call you down with really weak hands so I think it has +EV. Don't let the times when they raise discourage you. You can't when them all.