Adams' book, page 70: folding on fifth street with two pair

[King Yao]

I'm reading Ashley Adam's book, Winning 7-Card Stud. So far its decent. Its geared towards beginners and the lower limits (up to 10/20), so some of the advice seems to try to leer the player to playing tighter, which is good for most people. With that said, on p.70, he makes a recommendation to fold, which I'm not sure about. I wanted to see what the general opinion is here.

5-10 game, 8-handed.
You have a 4 showing and bring it in, with 8,4 in the hole. Everyone calls. The up cards are : Q, 5, 4, 5, 8, 6, J. The Q is to your left.

On fourth, you catch an 8 for two pair. Everyone checks (Q starts the action), and you bet. Everyone folds except the J, who got a T on fourth.

On fifth, you catch a T and your lone opponent pairs his door card. So the hand is :
You: (4,8) 4,8,T
Opp: J-T-J

He bets. should you call?

Adams' advice is to fold because the opponent has at least two pair and possibly trips. You only have two outs left, and even if you hit, you may just lose more.

My take on it is that he's unlikely to have trips (no raise on third or fourth), and may not have a pair either. He probably had a 3-straight or a 3-flush to start. But even with a 3-straight or a 3-flush, he's still close to 40% to beat you, so I think the decision is close between folding and calling, not as clear cut as Adams makes it seem.

I'm looking forward to what the forum thinks.

(my background - I played stud in the past, up to 10/20, but in the last 8 years or so, I've played almost hold'em exclusively...just getting back to stud now - so I'm reading everything I can).

[TheShootah]

Even if he had Jacks, if he was a decent player, he probably wouldn't raise. The raise isn't going to thin the field and it just makes the pot bigger. So I think it's more probable than you think. A big pair is actually not that big of a dog against two smaller pair, especially now that an 8 and 4 are gone. So I think I would fold anyway. So at best you are about even money, at worse, you are pretty much dead.

[beta1607]

You are either way behind or slightly ahead in this situaiton. As you stated, even if you are ahead, the villan will still draw out on you 40% of the time. With this in mind, I agree with Adams and believe this is a clear fold. (A big leak in my game is continuing here)

If the villan paired their door on 6th street and the pot was bigger it would be worth it to continue but at this point, its not worth having to put in 3 more big bets.

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he had Jacks, if he was a decent player, he probably wouldn't raise. The raise isn't going to thin the field and it just makes the pot bigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see your statement holding true for third street (that he may not raise with a split pair of J's). But I'm having trouble seeing how it applies to fourth street. He checked when it was checked to him (with only one other player to act), and once he checked, and the player with the two pair of 8s and 4s bets, and everybody else folded, he still only called - he didn't raise even when heads-up - so at that point, he's not worried about a big field. Its the fourth street play that makes me think two pair or trips is less likely than what Adams wrote.

Of course, I have little experience in stud, so my assumptions could be well off base.

[King Yao]

Here are some numbers I ran:

Assuming he has:
Pair in the hole, he will win 100% of the time.
Three to a straight to starte, he will win 60% of the time.
Three to a flush to start, he will win 56% of the time.
Two high cards but not three to a straight, he will win 51% of the time.

If I assign the following probabilities to what he could have:
pair in hole: 20%
three to a straight: 40%
three to a flush 30%
two higher cards 10%

that makes the player with the 8s and 4s to have an equity of about 35%. There are 3.5 big bets in the pot, with an expected two more (6th and River). The player is expecting to pump in 3 more bets (call on 5th, 6th and River), so he's getting 5.5 to 3....or needs to win about 35% of the time for it to be worthwhile.

With the above assumptions of the cards the opponent could hold, its a toss-up between calling and folding. But, what I'm afraid of is that my assumptions of what the opponent could hold could be off.

[TheShootah]

Oh ok. Duh! Hehehe...I see what you are saying now. Maybe he just advocated this play because it was simple. You are pretty much even money or behind, and it's just easier to fold here. You could be dead, and your outs to save yourself are toast. Maybe he was calling with a pair of jacks on 4th to raise you on 5th if you bet out again. I have no idea. I am learning stud just like you are! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

EDIT: I was thinking about this some more after I posted, specifically scare cards. What happens on sixth? There are so many cards on Sixth that are scary it's sick. You basically have a slim idea of what he has in the hole now, so pretty much any paint card, any 10, 9, 8, are kinda scary. The give straight cards, overcards, and two pair cards. It's pretty hard to know where you are at here, so maybe he just wants to have the reader avoid these situations on sixth by folding on fifth.

[beta1607]

I think you are discounting many of the villans possible holdings. Likely holdings have to include hands like (KQ)J and (T9)J. Giving the opponent many more two pair/4 straight possibilities.

[King Yao]

OK, that may very well be a mistake on my part. Can you tell me what you would estimate the individual probabilities as? I've re-listed the chart and my assumptions:

pair in hole: 20%
three to a straight: 40%
three to a flush 30%
two higher cards 10%

[jon_1van]

This is a pretty wierd example. On 3rd everyone calls. On 4th everyone fold except 1 guy. The day I see :: BI, call, call, call, call, call, call, call AND THEN bet, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, call. Is the day I've seen it all.

[beta1607]

its harder to do this without knowing what suits are out,but Ill do the best I can.

Also, you have no chance of trips?

2 pair/trips 50%
straight draw/over cards 30
flush 20%

I combined 2 pair/trips since you are basically dead to both and straight draw and over cards since over cards give a straight draw.