sticky bluff that caught

Bosox · #1 05-13-2005, 05:17 AM

I'm only about 50 hands deep at a party 6max NL 5/10 table and know UTG is calling anything (PT: 60/15 @ 2000 hands). Pots are rediculously large by showdown since i've been sitting.

who matters:
Loose UTG 6k
Villain (Button+1) 800
Hero (Button) 1000

Hero is dealt 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], all three players ahead cold call. Hero makes it 50 to go (hasn't raised a hand yet preflop). loose UTG calls and villain calls.
Flop [A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] pot: $175
Checked over to hero, who bets $125, UTG folds, villain calls.
Turn [A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] pot: $425
Villain checks, hero bets $225, villain CR to $450, hero...?

The idea was to clear out all but the loose player preflop and bluff when the flop hit but then the hand got more attractive on the turn. Is it possible to get away from the set with so much invested and relatively little on top? Was the hand played terribly from square one?

solid · #2 05-13-2005, 05:27 AM

You gave us a read on UTG, but we need a read on the Villian to give you any analysis.

I'd check behind on the turn though. You're not playing a big pot unless Villian has a flush if he's a good player.

Bosox · #3 05-13-2005, 05:38 AM

Villain has PT stats of 28/13 in 1500 hands. other than that, he hasn't done anything stupid since i've been sitting. That's it, sorry

sxz18 · #4 05-13-2005, 07:48 AM

Either check the turn or bet and fold to a raise. Since you bet, I'd fold to the c/r here. You said Villian hasn't done much out of line so I'm thinking he has a flush right now. Heck, he might even have the nut flush with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Flopped a straight and straight flushed the turn. If Villian isn't a tricky player, I think you're beat here 98% of the time. The only hand you can beat is two pair...which you would've heard from on the flop with such a draw heavy board. Any set, straight, or flush has you whacked.

jtr · #5 05-13-2005, 08:25 AM

Isn't calling the turn check-raise a reasonable option? We have pretty good odds to boat up, don't we?

NickDollar · #6 05-13-2005, 01:04 PM

It seems like you are likely behind here. Villain is likely either raising in some way preflop with AA QQ and TT. Also, with those stats it seems he would likely raise AQ as well? That could be giving stats a bit much credit though.

Anyway what other hands will he make this move with on the turn? I can't really see any except KJ or a flush, especially since you must be viewed as tight. Sadly even though he has $175 left I think the "right" play is to call the turn to fill up, and fold (?) the river when he pushes unless you do. But for $175 to win $1500 I don't know if I could make that river fold. Regardless, I can't see you winning without filling up.

Though I guess if we can't find that fold on the river (and we know we won't) then might as well push the turn.

Pretty tough spot, but I think this is what I'd do in an ideal world.

flawless_victory · #7 05-13-2005, 01:08 PM

this is ugly, but id prob just stick it in there....

sxz18 · #8 05-13-2005, 01:25 PM

I don't understand why you'd put more chips into this pot. There's virtually nothing you can beat that Villian would be c/c you with on the flop, then c/r you with on the turn. Even if you boat up, how are you sure it's good? What if you call and river is a black deuce? It's almost guaranteed Villian bets $625 on the river and goes all-in. This c/r looks like a pot commitment c/r. He wants to commit both you and himself to the pot to maximize value on the river.

Fold fold and fold.

NickDollar · #9 05-13-2005, 01:29 PM

You don't think villain could check a flush draw on the flop then check it again when he hits hoping the hero will stab? I can definitely see this line, and I think this is far far far more likely than a two pair or set hand checking it twice. I would be confident my boat is good.

Also, villain only has $175 left ater all the previous action. This actually swings it CLOSER to a fold though with less implied odds. But I still call, and I think it's close. If he had $625 left I think it's less close with pot odds plus the extra $450 in implied.

freemoney · #10 05-13-2005, 01:30 PM

this is a real real easy check behind on the turn IMO, villian check-calls which will often mean a draw, the draw comes but your hand gains real showdown value, check behind, if you hit the fh the river becomes easy if not you have to make a decision, by checking the turn it also will cause an ace or 2 pair hand to bet the river sometimes.