i figure this place beats the stock market forum for advice...

[astroglide]

http://www.accentia.net/

i can buy pre-ipo shares for the offering price. can anybody in related fields offer their opinion?

[willie]

fold preflop.

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
i figure this place beats the stock market forum for advice...

[/ QUOTE ]

so would a random number generator.

[Non_Comformist]

Astroglide, The important question in dealing with a Biotech and especially one that is pre IPO, is what information has led you to want to invest in it to begin with. Generally two types of people do well with Biotechs, #1 People who have not only a great grasp of the industry and what is being done but also enough money to diversify in many similar companies. #2 Insiders who have a scientific understanding about the company, what it is doing and a belief in it. The later usually gets rich off the IPO.

The vast majority of Biotech's that go public are doing so on the strength of one idea, if it does not hit big the company either fails or languishes for an extended period of time.

That web site did not provide any where near enough information to make an opinion about Accentia either way.

Do you have a prospectus?

[lu_hawk]

without knowing anything about this company other than what they do i could give you some advice about these types of companies in general.

1) they are high variance, when your whole company depends on a few drugs that are hit or miss then it is impossible to get to the long term. so even if the offer price is too low and you get +EV from buying it you still need luck on your side. whenever you see a stock down more than 50% in a single day, it is virtually always a biotech company.

2) in order to really try to value a company with developmental stage drugs you need to assume all kinds of probabilties in terms of chance of drug getting through trials, what kind of market it will get if it gets through trials, what the profit margin will be, etc. i doubt it is possible for anyone to do with any degree of accuracy. and realize that the person selling to you knows much more about the company than you do.

if you think it will pop for some reason then that is a game you can play, but i don't think you could make a case for a good investment. and IPO's don't pop on the first day the way that they used to.

[Boris]

I have to say I disagree strongly with all the previous posts. This is normally a great opportunity to get in right before an IPO. What you are looking to do is take advantage of the post IPO bounce. Hit and run baby. Admittedly this price spike isn't what it used to be, but I can't think of many other investment opportunities that are this close to easy money. Now here are two items of caution. I have a colleague at a VC firm that specializes in Bio-tech. He was complaining the other day that the IPO prices in Biotech shares were flat or only slightly above the most recent VC valuation, and very little post offering spike. I know the biotech sector in the public markets is slumping right now. Do some research into what has been happening to the post IPO prices of recent biotech offerings.

The second word of caution is to make sure your shares are not subject to a lock-up agreement. Usually they only make the major investors sign these things but you want to double check.

[lu_hawk]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to say I disagree strongly with all the previous posts. This is normally a great opportunity to get in right before an IPO. What you are looking to do is take advantage of the post IPO bounce. Hit and run baby. Admittedly this price spike isn't what it used to be, but I can't think of many other investment opportunities that are this close to easy money. Now here are two items of caution. I have a colleague at a VC firm that specializes in Bio-tech. He was complaining the other day that the IPO prices in Biotech shares were flat or only slightly above the most recent VC valuation, and very little post offering spike. I know the biotech sector in the public markets is slumping right now. Do some research into what has been happening to the post IPO prices of recent biotech offerings.

The second word of caution is to make sure your shares are not subject to a lock-up agreement. Usually they only make the major investors sign these things but you want to double check.

[/ QUOTE ]

the last 5 biotech IPO's:

THLD: offering price of $7, closed at $7.14 on first day, currently at $6.23.

ICGN: offering price of $8, closed at $7.30 first day, currently at $7.

FVRL: offering price of $7, closed at $6.80 first day, currently at $3.90.

THRX: offered at $16, closed at $17.85 first day, currently at $17.70.

MNKD: offered at $14, closed $14.08 first day, currently at $13.85.

So out of the sure thing easy money IPO's 4 out of the last 5 are down from their offering price, 2 closed down on the first day, 2 closed up fractionally on the first but are now down from their offering price, and one closed up by less than $2 and is flat since then.

[Boris]

yea no bounce. oh well. If the expected offering price is substantially higher than what glide is getting in at at, I'd still make a big investment.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.accentia.net/

i can buy pre-ipo shares for the offering price. can anybody in related fields offer their opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you getting this chance? If you are not a big account, maybe expectations are not good for this one. I'm not saying you aren't, I have no idea, just something to consider. I remember when IPOs were reserved for the biggest and best clients, maybe that has changed.

[astroglide]

it's a personal favor/offer through a friend. the amount of money i would be willing to put in will be a pittance compared to what's already there, and it's not being offered to make some kind of profit on it.