Flopped two pair but still an underdog to a draw.. DOH !

tjh · #1 05-02-2005, 10:19 PM

I hope the bad beat police are not on patrol..

Frequently when I lose a hand I run to two dimes and put the hand in the odds calculator to see if I made the right play and just got unlucky. When I ran the odds on this hand I was surprised to find out I was an underdog. I was winning at the flop but he had flush, straight and all kinds of outs. Question.. I guess I could not have known this but just in case.. did I play this right?

I assume that I made the right play, just thought the fact that I was ahead but still an underdog was interesting.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter

MP2 (t1055)
Hero (t1850)
Button (t1410)
SB (t2915)
BB (t1860)
UTG (t2895)
MP1 (t3015)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t350, 2 folds, BB calls t250.

Flop: (t750) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t1510 (All-In), Hero calls t1500 (All-In).

Turn: (t3760) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3760) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3760

Results in white below: 
BB has Td Jd (flush, king high).
Hero has Js Qc (two pair, queens and jacks).
Outcome: BB wins t3760. 

Here is the twodimes calculator output.
pokenum -h js qc - td jd -- kd qd jh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kd Qd Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Qc 468 47.27 501 50.61 21 2.12 0.483
Jd Td 501 50.61 468 47.27 21 2.12 0.517

Bill Poker · #2 05-02-2005, 10:39 PM

how about folding preflop?

he had 16 outs, so its a coin flip.

[ QUOTE ]
I hope the bad beat police are not on patrol..

Frequently when I lose a hand I run to two dimes and put the hand in the odds calculator to see if I made the right play and just got unlucky. When I ran the odds on this hand I was surprised to find out I was an underdog. I was winning at the flop but he had flush, straight and all kinds of outs. Question.. I guess I could not have known this but just in case.. did I play this right?

I assume that I made the right play, just thought the fact that I was ahead but still an underdog was interesting.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter

MP2 (t1055)
Hero (t1850)
Button (t1410)
SB (t2915)
BB (t1860)
UTG (t2895)
MP1 (t3015)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t350, 2 folds, BB calls t250.

Flop: (t750) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t1510 (All-In), Hero calls t1500 (All-In).

Turn: (t3760) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3760) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3760

Results in white below: 
BB has Td Jd (flush, king high).
Hero has Js Qc (two pair, queens and jacks).
Outcome: BB wins t3760. 

Here is the twodimes calculator output.
pokenum -h js qc - td jd -- kd qd jh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kd Qd Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Qc 468 47.27 501 50.61 21 2.12 0.483
Jd Td 501 50.61 468 47.27 21 2.12 0.517

[/ QUOTE ]

ReDeYES88 · #3 05-02-2005, 10:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how about folding preflop?

he had 16 outs, so its a coin flip.

[ QUOTE ]

. .you counting runner-runner 10s as the 16th out?

Nottom · #4 05-02-2005, 10:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how about folding preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding seems too weak to me, but he could probably raise a little less.

Obviously you call the raise. Even if you saw his hand and knew you were "behind" there' a 700 chip overlay sitting in the middle.

tjh · #5 05-02-2005, 11:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how about folding preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding seems too weak to me, but he could probably raise a little less.

Obviously you call the raise. Even if you saw his hand and knew you were "behind" there' a 700 chip overlay sitting in the middle.

You are only really screwed by a set and pretty screwed by a straight, but most people don't open push for 2X the pot with those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I needed to steal some blinds, hence the preflop bet

Sam T. · #6 05-02-2005, 11:25 PM

You had to bet your stack, he had to call. Everyone played it right.

Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

Sam