Overcard Outs

[waynethetrain]

Sorry there's no hand to go with these comments. I am not looking for advice on a specific hand.

I am looking for a general discussion of this issue - perhaps with contributions of many hands from other people as examples.

I have a problem counting overcard outs. SSH says to generally count them as 3 outs instead of 6. I suppose that's a good general rule, but there has to be a better way to do it than that. The difference between 3 and 6 is massive in terms of making calling decisions and it seems I need to refine my thinking a little.

Naturally, things like 2-3 to a flush and 2-3 to a straight on the flop reduce their value. Sets are always possible even if the flop cards are not in the playing zone etc... There's a chance someone has the same overcard as you, but has you outkicked (AK vs. AQ).

However, translating this information into a correct number of outs or even a tight enough range to make marginal calling decisions when you know what the pot odds are, is quite difficult. Again, the difference between what you can call for 3 outs vs. 5 or 6 outs is HUGE!

[Dunno]

I agree counting outs can be tuff and it depends alot on the table... How many are in the pot? how many play this type of cards that is on the board? How big is the pot? When there is many players in the pot the chans that someone has 2 pair is bigger then if it was headsup and ur overcards could be counted as full outs but if its 4 way i count them as a half, but this depends on the board! If the board is 27J rainbow i could count my AK as full outs because ppl dont like to play 72 7J or 2J, the could have KJ or AJ and then im in trouble but thats poker and if its a big pot (4way and at least i have raised w AK) i count this outs as full.

GL // Dunno

[k000k]

Ya, that really depends, could be just about 6, could be none..

How many ppl in the pot, HU or family pot? WHO is in the pot, TAG's or fish? What are your overcards, are there overcards to your overcards, you have QJ or AK? What's on the board, will your overcard fill someone's straight/flush?

In a best case scenario, 2 overcards on a raggy rainbow board heads up against a tighty, I'd give you somewhere between 5.5-6 outs.

In a worst case scenario, like a monotone connected flop (u have none of the suit) in the 7-J range, with tons of players in, you get almost none.

[ArturiusX]

What hands will beat your overcards anyway is usually my question.

On a rag, board, your usually safe. The more dangers there are, the more I discount till i reach zero.

[zuluking]

I think in the longterm its better to under-value those outs like it says in SSHE. Good post wayne.

[Bodhi]

Good question. A lot of the time you just have to base this decision on experience, by which I mean, you look at the board cards, decide how dangerous they are and figure the possible hands you're up against, and then decide on the number of outs for your overcards. You don't always say '3' or use a rule to determine an answer. Also, backdoor draws are often enough to lean you towards a call on the flop instead of a fold.

My favorite type of overcard hand is a gutshot + overcards. I used to undervalue these hands, but they're actually moderately strong on the flop.

[Dunno]

This is actually a good hand. u could have 10 outs at most but mostly u have 7 maybe. thats almost as many as an OESD (8) and remember that 4 of them often are the nuts! (if its a rainbow flop)Of course it must be some money in the pot to [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

GL // Dunno