3/6 QQ - Check behind on the turn?

[mannika]

Villain is buddy list material, 47/5/0.7 over ~700 hands. Is this a good time to check behind on the turn?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">8 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.66 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 5.66 BB

[shark6]

I would have bet the turn and folded to a checkraise.

1. He is 47% VPIP, so he could have anything, including lots of hands without an A or K.

2. He is passive. So if he did checkraise, it's the real deal and you can fold.

3. If he calls the turn bet, I'd take the free showdown, as he probably has Ax and is afraid of his kicker, but won't fold to a river bet.

[shant]

If you were going to call a river bet, I would bet the turn.

[mtdoak]

Bet the turn, mucking to a raise. Check behind on the river.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn, mucking to a raise. Check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

check with outs. bet with none. here, 2 counts as none.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn, mucking to a raise. Check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

check with outs. bet with none. here, 2 counts as none.

[/ QUOTE ]

For someone who isnt posting, you are totally dominating the 'last post' category on the main page

[ErrantNight]

i'm done now! going home!

in all seriousness... i've been waiting since 6:45 for my ride and i can do nothing more on my paper since here... and by now i COULD have taken the T home and been home and continued working, but i'm being taken out to dinner by the GF before she leaves on a trip... so instead of finding a legitimate way to spend this time... i'm wasting it!

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn, mucking to a raise. Check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn, mucking to a raise. Check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

check with outs. bet with none. here, 2 counts as none.

[/ QUOTE ]

Advantages to checking
1) If Villain has the ace or king, I'm losing the same amount of bets regardless, correct?
2) If Villain has A or K, I give myself the opportunity to spike a Q on the river.
3) If Villain has absolutely nothing (JT, etc), at worst I gain the same amount of bets, at best, I gain an extra bet when he either bluffs the river or bets a legitimate pair, correct?
4) If Villain has absolutely nothing, I give him the opportunity to bluff-raise me on the turn (admittedly this is very unlikely given Villain)


Disadvantages of checking
1) If Villain has a weak pair (4 or 5), I am giving him the opportunity to catch his second pair or set about 11% of the time.


I feel that in this situation, the advantages certainly outweigh the disadavantages. For those that have disagreed, is there anything that I have stated incorrectly above, or is there anything that I have left out? In other words, please refute the above argument.

(I don't intend for this to be combatative, I just don't see the advantage to betting the turn, and if there is one, I would like to know why that is the case for future reference. Thanks.)

[New001]

What about when he checks to you on the river and folds to a bet because he whiffed on his free draw, but he doesn't want to bluff? Or if he hits his gutshot on a free card that he wasn't going to call a bet with?

Bet the turn, fold to a raise. If he raises you, you're beat already. There's really no need to go to showdown to see whether he had an A or a K.