A good thought problem from MHSNL

Ghazban · #1 04-26-2005, 11:06 AM

I know a lot of people reading here also read the higher stakes no-limit board but, for those who don't, check out this thread:

Better Poker in 30 Seconds

PinkSteel · #2 04-26-2005, 11:49 AM

I'll post the requested response here because I am by no means a high stakes player. Yes, I came up w/ my answer in <30 seconds.

I call.

That assumes Villain would ALWAYS all-in w/ any AA, KK, AK, which is how I read the problem. Villain could have AA (6 ways), KK (1 way) or AK (8 ways), all ways equal in probability. So I think calling is +EV -- although now that I've thought about it, % to lose to AA is not the same as % to beat AK, so maybe it's closer than I thought....

Ghazban · #3 04-26-2005, 11:57 AM

Somebody in the original thread actually did the math (used Pokerstove, I think) to come up with the exact EV of calling here.

PinkSteel · #4 04-26-2005, 12:05 PM

I saw some numbers there to justify calling but I don't think they're right. If I use the odds from your post to the original thread -- 4:1 dog vs AA (20% win), 7:3 fav vs AK (70% win) -- and counts I posted -- 6 AA, 1 KK, 8 AK -- I get proportions of 0.72:0.68 in favor of being beaten, i.e., folding.

Obviously a lot closer than my 30sec response. Good check of one's intuition.

etgryphon · #5 04-26-2005, 12:07 PM

My initial inclination was to fold because of the short math that 2 extra times that you dominate the AK which is 5:3(?) doesn't make up for the 1:4 dog if you are up against AA. KK is a wash. I think it is no better than AK against a mid PP where you are the AK.

-Gryph