"Effective" Pot Equity?

[GrandmaStabone]

I was combing throught Theory of Poker today, and I came across the section of "Effective odds". If you are not familiar, effective odds calculate your "real" odds in poker with more than one round of betting to come. This got me thinking about pot equity, which also shifts between betting rounds. The example given in TOP to illustrate effective odds is a flush draw on the flop in a 10-20 game with 20 in the pot. Your chances to make the draw by the river are 1.86 to 1, getting 1_3/4-1 the call seems correct. BUT your chances of making the draw on the turn are 4.11 to 1, and since you calculated the odds of going to the river when considering odds on the flop, you have to call the now 20 bet on the turn. So to calculate effective odds you take the 20pot+10bet+20bet to 10call+20call = 50 to 30 odds, now getting 1_2/3 odds on the flop the call becomes unprofitable.


SO, getting back to pot equity. In SSHE, the example of when to raise on a draw on the basis of pot equity states:

[ QUOTE ]
" For instance, you have flopped a flush draw against four opponents. You have a 35% chance to make your hand by the river, and therefore about a 35% pot equity. If all four opponents call to see the turn, you will contribute 20% of the money, but your equity is 35%. This represents a "pot equity edge""

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, since your odds of making this flush shift on the turn, therein shifting your pot equity from 35% to 20%, isn't calculating pot equity based ONLY on the flop bets incomplete?


Just as in the example in TOP where the call becomes unprofitable when calculating odds of going to the river and considering only flop bets, wouldn't raising against four opponents based on the 35% figure (whch assumes you will go to the river), incomplete because it does not consider the -15% shift in equity on the turn? On the turn, you are contributing 20% of the money with a -0.04 edge, yet even this figure ASSUMES ALL FOUR OPPONENTS ALSO CALL TO THE RIVER, relaistically they won't, and your equity shifts drastically, even if you get 4 to the river you are -5% equity, if you get three (which is far more likely), you have ~-13% edge.... Don't these factors make the flop raise -EV?


Anyways, someone will probably give me a three line quote from SSHE that completely debunks me, but I was just curious...


G.S.

[tablecop]

the SSHE example assumes you have "implied odds" sufficient to see the river (and with 5 seeing the flop the assumption is correct) and then examines the possibility of raising vs calling the flop. the TOP example is a blinds battle heads-up (and unraised) on the flop and folding is certainly an option if the flush draw is your only way of winning.