99 flops top set

joewatch · #1 04-21-2005, 01:49 AM

Who agrees with this line?

My image: LAG (but actually TAG)
Villain: VPIP 35%, PFR 4% Loose-passive

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($110.8)
UTG+2 ($99)
MP1 ($80.1)
Hero ($113.22)
MP3 ($133.4)
CO ($122.45)
Button ($40.25)
SB ($66.73)
BB ($84)
UTG ($121.8)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $9, CO raises to $18, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($45.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $25, Hero calls $91.22 (All-In), CO folds.

Final Pot: $161.72

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Hero wins $161.72. 

My read was that Villain has a lower set given his min reraise on the flop and decent bet on the turn. He never semibluffed a draw. His fold indicates an overpair, right?

-Skeme- · #2 04-21-2005, 01:54 AM

I'd probably re-raise a decent amount on the flop. Maybe to $40 or something. He could also be minraising for a free card on the turn with 66-88 or even hearts. I mean, you did give him the option to check it behind.. That's why I think it's better to define the hand early since you're out of position and he has a huge range of hands here. If he does have a set than I think it's unlikely he'll fold to your re-raise on the flop. It'll also get the pot bigger and give him more of a reason to call your all in on the turn. He also might just jam on the flop.

theweatherman · #3 04-21-2005, 01:54 AM

i would raise the flop as well.

-Skeme- · #4 04-21-2005, 01:55 AM

Very insightful.

ThePortuguee · #5 04-21-2005, 01:59 AM

Agreed, given your preflop raise, from his vantage point there's a decent chance you have an overpair to that board and so he's probably not releasing a set in that situation. GIven his fold he probably has an overpair or draw he decided he didnt want to pay his stack to draw to, but a reraise on the flop is probably correct, even though I actually dont hate the way you played it, either. I wonder if this post is actually as mindlessly aimless as it feels...

joewatch · #6 04-21-2005, 01:59 AM

Well, I guess the question is, would anyone raise less on the turn instead of going all-in? Or smooth-call the bet and get it all-in on the river? Or lead out the turn?

I agree that re-reraising the flop would be the standard play, but I wanted to mix it up by check-raising the turn.

-Skeme- · #7 04-21-2005, 02:04 AM

Check-raising isn't bad, but this is a draw heavy board and I would say there is a good chance he could be going for a free card with his minraise. That's the only reason I wouldn't reccommend a check-raise in this spot. I'm also a fan of building pots with strong hands.

xorbie · #8 04-21-2005, 02:21 AM

Look at it from villains point of view. On the flop, you're most likely hands are missed overcards or an over pair. He can't tell which (assuming you make standard continuation bets), so he min-raises to see if his T9 or 88 or whatever is good. You call, but don't demonstrate much strength so you could easily be not very good and just hoping to spike a high card on the turn, or maybe you have a flush draw.

Then you check on the turn. This probably confirms his suspicions that you have AK/AQ, perhaps suited. He bets to try to take it down now, then you check/raise all in. He can't be happy at this point, because you've gone from looking weak to showing obvious strength.

I think throwing out a small ($20 or so) bet on the turn as a "blocking bet" is the best way to go.

-Skeme- · #9 04-21-2005, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think throwing out a small ($20 or so) bet on the turn as a "blocking bet" is the best way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you blocking? You almost certainly have the best hand by a mile. You want him betting, right?

swolfe · #10 04-21-2005, 09:35 AM

this is my standard against someone that i'm sure is going to follow up on the turn.

EDIT: nevermind, i raise pot on the flop to a min-raise. i hate being min-raised. i'd have called and check-raised the turn if he had made a real raise.

EDIT EDIT: Also, the all in is the right bet amount for your check raise. it's still an underbet of the pot. that's really your goal, to get your stack in without it being a ridiculous overbet...