Very early, huge draw, opponent pushes....

[meow_meow]

here is the hand, first orbit of a Party 100+9 from last night:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter

MP2 (t975)
MP3 (t795)
CO (t975)
Button (t960)
SB (t1075)
Hero (t1000)
UTG (t950)
UTG+1 (t965)
MP1 (t2305)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t50</font>, Button calls t35, SB folds.

Flop: (t112.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, Button calls [t910] , Hero ????

I'm only getting about 1.3:1 to call. It would be nice to double up early though, and I'm a favorite against a lot of hands he might have here, and only a significant dog to a set, which seems unlikely.

What's your play?
Also, feel free to critisize my play on up to that point as well.

[Lurshy]

It looks like the guy just called your bet. Was the push after the turn card? If so what was the card and your action, or did the converter mess up?

[durron597]

The converter appears to have screwed up.... but I'm willing to go to the felt with that hand.

[meow_meow]

No, see, he I bet 100, he "calls" all-in for 810 more (910 total). I think it is the way the HH's are written.

[fnord_too]

I think that is a call. You are favored over the range of hands I put him on (any two broadway, any pair), and against top set you are only a 2:1 dog. Also, he could have a smaller draw than you. I call and take my chances. That over bet feels like a weak king, and I am happy to get my money in if that is the case.

[JackOfSpeed]

I call and hope I hit one of my 84 bazillion outs.




I think it's even possible that he has JQ if he's a tard.

[A_PLUS]

Even with a generous range for him (I dont see KK here at all). you are about a coin flip from here. I actually think a set is a little unlikely as well. Maybe 77, but do you think he overbets that much with a set? Maybe to throw you off, but I doubt it.

I think KT, KJ, 89h, Q9h, are your most likely hands for him. If so, you are giving up too much by folding here.

[NLfool]

too early unless you know him to be a donk. Gamble in the middle/late stages with this when you could win 40k or whatever large amount in chips. Don't gamble for peanuts here as it won't really have much affect on how you place 1st-3rd (minus of course getting knocked out)

[meow_meow]

The more I think about this, the more I don't like the call. Maybe it's just my risk-averse nature, but most of the time I'm looking at a coin-flip here, and it's not a rebuy tourney...

FWIW, I call, he flips up an ugly T6s. Middle pair, no kicker, no draw....
Maybe he misread the board, and thought he had 2 pair....
No help, blah.

[JonLines]

But this time you were like a what... 70-30 favourite? Im guessing here, nothing to work from. 70-30 is about as good as it gets in poker, you should be happy with your read, and count your loss as a suck out! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]