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Drawing to a drawing hand. How to calculate the odds?
The following is a tournament hand that I played very poorly, but it brought up a discussion on how to calculate odds when you need to catch a turn card to complete a draw for the river (runner-runner) and specifically about calling the flop.
This is late in the first hour of a $30 buy-in Limit hold'em tourney. Villain is a straightforward player who hasn't gotten out of line. The table has been fairly passive with <50% of hands being raised preflop which allowed me to limp in with marginal hands. Party Poker Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind t50 (9 handed) converter saw flop|saw showdown CO (t735) Button (t915) SB (t1395) BB (t1680) UTG (t110) Hero (t2070) MP1 (t488) MP2 (t1600) MP3 (t1137) Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. 1 fold, Hero calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP1 calls. Weak call, but I had an above average stack and was calling with Ax and Kx suited hands. Flop: (7 SB, t350) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players) SB bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls. Not a great flop, but I have backdoor straight and flush draws. I need to catch a T or a heart on the turn so I am drawing to 13 outs to improve (that was my logic at least). I'm getting 8:1 to call and odds are improving are 2.6:1. In retrospect, I should have realized that my T outs were probably not clean since villain could easily have AK and be making a continuation bet. Turn: (5 BB, t500) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players) SB bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls. This is perhaps the best of all possible cards to catch. It gives me the nut straight and nut flush draw. No difficulties calling here. I was worried that MP1 might have KT to limit my straight outs, but if so he probably would have raised the flop. River: (8 BB, t800) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players) SB bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, SB calls. Runner-runner comes through. Final Pot: 12 BB (t1200) If you do the math based on the entire hand, this is what you get. On the flop, I'm drawing to a heart or a ten. That gives me 13 outs giving me 2.61:1 odds with pot odds of 8:1. 72.4% of the time I'm done with the hand on a turn blank. Net loss 50. 27.6% of the time I get my T or heart and continue. 19.8%(27.6%*71.7%) of the time I miss on the river and fold. Net loss 150. 7.8%(27.6%*28.3%) of the time I hit on the river and raise. Net gain 750 (-36.2) + (-29.7) + 58.6 = -7.4 Overall, this is a small -EV play, but I felt that I was basing my call on the pot odds for the turn only, and not the overall hand and talked myself into calling a single card so I could evaluate again on the turn. For the entire hand, I'm a 11.8:1 underdog and getting 8:1 odds on the flop(9:1 if person call behind me). Should that figure have been the deciding factor which tells me to fold? At the time of the hand, I felt that I had the odds to call a single bet on the flop since the pot had been raised preflop. If there had been no preflop raise I would have folded. It was only afterwards that I discovered that the pot odds were minorly -EV. Comments welcome, as are those that wish to laugh at my fishiness. |
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