More river play - 3-betting after aggression

rafct · #1 04-16-2005, 07:54 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds, Button calls.

River: (6.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

Opponent is an average party 0.5/1 player.
I am not assuming he would raise the river if he had only 2 pair.
My thoughts here to 3bet the river were that I am behind 88,66,QQ,K8,K6 and KQ. QQ and KQ are not very likely because he did not raise preflop. However I am ahead all the other trip kings , so I am more likely ahead. Is that a good reasoning for the 3bet?

toss · #2 04-16-2005, 07:55 PM

Perfect. The vast majority he's getting "tricky" with worse Kings.

jaxUp · #3 04-16-2005, 07:56 PM

Try a combinatorial analysis, to see mathematically, what is more likely, a full house or trip kings + worse kicker

Malachii · #4 04-16-2005, 08:17 PM

I don't think I'd 3 bet this river given that he called your raise cold preflop, which implies two face cards at least. KQ is villain's most likely holding. I remember reading in TOP that it's a very rare opponent capable of bluff raising the river when you've been betting into him the whole way.

bozlax · #5 04-16-2005, 08:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'd 3 bet this river given that he called your raise cold preflop, which implies two face cards at least. KQ is villain's most likely holding. I remember reading in TOP that it's a very rare opponent capable of bluff raising the river when you've been betting into him the whole way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Button limped, then re-limped preflop. No cold-call. And I think we've all seen stranger things than a bluff-raise on the river on PP.

FishHooks · #6 04-16-2005, 08:56 PM

I agree with you 100%, those were my EXACT thoughts.

fluxrad · #7 04-16-2005, 09:20 PM

I think it's 50/50 you're beat in this situation. As likely as it is that Button's playing something like KJ it's also equally likely he's playing 66.

I just call the river raise.

toss · #8 04-16-2005, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
that he called your raise cold preflop, which implies two face cards at least. KQ is villain's most likely holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel this statement is wrong. Typhical players here cold call raises with plently more than you think. This includes pocket pairs, sooted cards, connectors and the like. The chance of you seeing KQ is no where close to make 3-betting unprofitable.

Aaron W. · #9 04-16-2005, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'd 3 bet this river given that he called your raise cold preflop, which implies two face cards at least. KQ is villain's most likely holding. I remember reading in TOP that it's a very rare opponent capable of bluff raising the river when you've been betting into him the whole way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says he's bluff raising? He may actually believe his turned trip kings give him the best hand and he wanted to trick you by not raising them on the turn.

deepsquat · #10 04-16-2005, 11:35 PM

I think you played it well, he might be trying to get clever with a weaker king.

I doubt he has queens, and a set is unlikely