Learn from my bad river play

[jrz1972]

MP1 is LPP. SB is also LPP, except he likes to bluff at painfully obvious times (he's gotten picked off a couple of times already).

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>,

My river raise was wrong. Do you see why?

[MrWookie47]

I think the most likely answer is that SB just woke up with trips. You're only better than J2, J3, J7, and J8 here, so you're better off just calling.

[dozer]

because it is a situation when going for overcalls is more profitable. If the sb has you beat, your raise will cause others to fold and risk being reraise by the SB. But if you just call and MP1 calls you end up making the same anyway and lose less when you are behind.

[jrz1972]

Yep, this is almost, but not quite, a textbook example of when it's right to go for overcalls.

There is an unusually high likelihood that one of two things are happening:

1. SB is bluffing. In this case, he's not calling my raise, so my only realistic chance of getting paid off is to get the other opponent to overcall.

2. SB has me beat. As Wookie noted, there aren't that many non-bluff hands that I beat. Granted, SB could be sitting on a pocket underpair and betting because he thinks the 2nd J on board makes it less likely that I have one, but if he has the J that he's representing, there's a pretty good chance I'm losing. Here, raising is obviously wrong.

Add another opponent yet to act behind me and the case for inducing overcalls would be even stronger. I think it's pretty clear-cut as it is, though.

FWIW, both opponents folded to my raise.

[Dave G.]

Your hand is probably good here. The raise is wrong because you will drive MP1 out unless he has a mega hand, so you miss a potential overcall from him.

At the same time, if SB is on a bluff, he isn't going to call your raise so you don't make any extra money out of him by raising.

Even worse, since both opponents are LPP, if they 3-bet you here you're probably beaten by a boat, which means you can lose a bunch more chips than you should just by calling.