Why Two Dimes Data Is Wrong

[gergery]

I see a lot of people post on this forum using twodimes data to prove their point. Unfortunately, they often draw the wrong conclusions from looking at that data. So let’s set the record straight.

TwoDimes does NOT calculate EV for you

EV is shorthand for “expected value” but really it is defined as “The expected value in profit you would make on average if this same scenario played out an infinite number of times”. This could more accurately be called Profit Equity, but everyone shorthands it to EV.

Twodimes does not provide that. Instead, what they provide is, “The expected value in pots won that you would make average if this same scenario played out an infinite number of times”. This could more accurately be called Pot Equity, and is not the same thing as EV in split pot games.

This is driven by one fundamental fact: if the pot is split, you do not get back half of the money that you put into the pot – you have to give it to the guy that won the other half of the pot. As a result, winning half the pot is not half as good as winning the whole pot. It’s worth less than that. Said another way, scooping is not worth 2x winning just high (or low). It is worth more than that.

But twodimes only gives scooping 2x the value of winning half the pot. Which is fine for twodimes to do since they couldn’t calculate profit EV without knowing how much $ is in the pot and how many players there are. But its not fine for us to think of twodimes EV as really being EV.

Here’s a little illustrative example. You have AsAdJsTc, your opponent has Ah2h7d7s, and the board is 2d5c5s5h with just the river card yet to come. The pot has 12BBs in it and both you and your opponent have put in 3.5BBs. For simplicity assume you are both all-in now, and everyone else folded.

What is your pot equity?
What is your profit equity?

--Greg

[JoshuaMayes]

I am not sure I understand the point you are trying to make. In your example, you rate to win ~75% of the pot over the long run, meaning you will win ~9BB per iteration. 5.5 BB of that will be profit, given that you put in 3.5 BB to win 9BB. The other hand rates to win ~25% so it will win ~3BB per iteration. Thus, this hand rates to lose .5 BB given that he put in 3.5BB to win 3BB.

But when making poker decisions, we ignore sunk costs, so we really only care about our pot equity at the time of our decision. It is possible that the losing hand in your example made +EV decisions throughout the hand. Pot equity and pot odds are exactly what we care about at the time of a decision. Thus, the two dimes info, which provides you with pot equity, is extremely valuable.

I think you may be slightly confused about what exactly the pot equity number returned by two dimes represents. If the calculator tells me that I have 33% pot equity, I will get back .33 for every $1.00 I put in the pot + .33 of every $1.00 already in the pot. The fact the O8 is a split pot game is relevant to the calculation of pot equity, but once pot equity is determined, the underlying nature of the game becomes irrelevant to a particular decision (ignoring implied odds, bluffing potential on later streets etc.).

We only care about the EV of our particular decisions as we make them. The EV of a decision is a function of the pot equity of our hand at the time we make the decision, the size of the pot, and a few other things (such as fold equity, implied odds and advertising value). Although two-dimes does not calculate EV, it calculates the most important and difficult aspect for you, which is pot equity. Moreover, if a hand has pot equity greater than 50% it is, by definition, the best hand and will usually rate to win the most money over the long run.

[Beavis68]

Instead of making us jump through your hoops, why don't you show us what you mean.

I think you are confusing pot odds and pot equity.

You have the high side locked up, the low will hit 16 out of 40 times, 24 times you win 100% 16 times you win half, that is 80%

[JoshuaMayes]

[ QUOTE ]

You have the high side locked up, the low will hit 16 out of 40 times, 24 times you win 100% 16 times you win half, that is 80%

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, two times (either remaining 7) you win 0%. So 22 times you win 100%, 16 times you win 50%, and 2 times you win 0%. Total = 75%.

[Golf_Jax]

i dont understand

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You have the high side locked up, the low will hit 16 out of 40 times, 24 times you win 100% 16 times you win half, that is 80%

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, two times (either remaining 7) you win 0%. So 22 times you win 100%, 16 times you win 50%, and 2 times you win 0%. Total = 75%.

[/ QUOTE ]

You typed in something wrong, You have AAA77 for the nut boat, he can't beat your high hand.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=896053
pokenum -o8 as ad js tc - 2d 5c 5s 5h -- ah 2h 7d 7s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing 7s 7d Ah 2h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Js Tc Ad 24 40 0 0 0 0 0 0.800

5s 5c 2d 5h 0 0 40 0 16 0 0 0.200

[GooperMC]

Beavis68, your opponent has Ah 2h 7d 7s and the board is 5s 5c 2d 5h. I think you may have put that into two dimes backward.

You have AA555 against 77555. The two 7's do indeed beat you for the high.

[gergery]

math error on the main point of my post -- nevermind.

it doesn't affect some minor points which still hold, but i'm not going to bother with those.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
Beavis68, your opponent has Ah 2h 7d 7s and the board is 5s 5c 2d 5h. I think you may have put that into two dimes backward.

You have AA555 against 77555. The two 7's do indeed beat you for the high.

[/ QUOTE ]

yikes, thanks.

[wabe]

Only if a 7 comes on the river, right? Or am I missing something?