Question regarding pot equity

[crumpentunt]

I've finished reading SSH, and have been sporadically reading sections which I feel I need to brush up on or sections where I am finding certain concepts difficult to understand.

The concept I am struggling with right now is pot equity. I have been lurking here for awhile and have read a few posts on it, but there is one thing left that is confusing me.

Here is a quote from a post GrunchCan made regarding the topic,

You're confusing pot equity with pot odds.

Pot equity (actually, pot equity edge) is computed by comparing the chance that you will win the pot with what your "fair share" is. You determine what your fair share is by counting the number of opponents.

In this hand, you have around 20% pot equity becasue you will improve to the best hand and win about 20% of the time. (Count & discount the outs to determine this.) But there are a total of 5 people contending for the pot, including yourself. So your fair share is 1/5, or 20%. If your pot equity is more than youjr fair share, you have a pot equity edge, and you should raise. If you don't have an equity edge, it might be right to call (pot odds tell you this), but you can't raise for value.

Make sense?


My question that I have is, say you have a flush draw on the turn which will give you the nuts. Your pot equity would be 20% of the pot. There are six people in the pot in total (5 opponents). You are in UTG+1 and UTG has bet into the field. Since you represent 16.7% of the people in the hand and your pot equity is 20%, you have a pot equity edge and can then raise for value. But if you raise you would knock out some, if not all of the remaining opponents (except for UTG of course).

My question is, when you have a pot equity edge, is the concept always assuming that all of your opponents will call? Is it still raising for value if only 3 people call? The reason I ask this is that I don't know whether this concept takes into account people folding to your raise and only 2-3 people calling. If that were the case would the raise be a -EV play?

I see alot of posts where people suggest raising for value because you have a pot equity edge (concerning hands where if you knock out opponents, your equity edge would increase such as draws to the nuts), but I am not sure if these suggestions are taking into account everyone calls. If they weren't, then I am assuming just calling in these situations would be better.

Any comments or tips would be appreciated.

Great forum by the way, learned alot so far and plan on being a contributing poster.

[istewart]

With just a flush draw on the turn you generally do not have enough of a pot equity edge in order to raise/bet for value. In this case, with 6 total people in the pot, you do have an edge. However, facing the field with two cold will likely eliminate this edge and perhaps force you to pay 3 bets on the turn -- not fun. Thus, in this situation I would call. It does dependent somewhat on the looseness of the players behind me, though.

By the way, welcome.

[crumpentunt]

So when advice is given, like "There are 4 people in the pot and you have 30% equity so you should raise for value.." they are assuming that everyone is calling?

[istewart]

If you flop a flush draw, and you're on the button, and the action goes bet, call, call, you can/should raise for value in this spot, since every flop bet that goes in makes you money.

[crumpentunt]

I getcha, thanks.

[toss]

SSH generally assumes your playing with loosies that'll call your bet.

[Yako]

It depends on what kind of hand you have. If you are on a nut flush draw, your odds of winning the hand will not change whether you have 1 opponent or 9. You will always be a 4.1:1 underdog. However, if say you have middle pair and a gutshot straight draw as well as 1 overcard, your pot equity goes up for every player that folds, as you are that much more likely of winning when you hit your outs.

[cold_cash]

There's a whole bunch of stuff here that might answer some of your questions.

[crumpentunt]

Another question, why is it on the flop that with a four flush, your pot equity is 35% and you only need two callers for it to be profitable... Shouldn't it be 20% because that is the chance that you will hit it on the next card? I mean if the only betting round was on the flop and the turn was automatically checked through, i can understand the 35%, but why is it 35% and not 20%? I am confused.

[cold_cash]

With 2 callers you're putting in roughly 35% of all bets.