Bottom set, a TON of action, slow down?

mtdoak · #1 04-11-2005, 09:50 PM

No real reads. Should I slow down on this turn or keep the gas pedal down?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB caps, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (17 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls, MP2 calls, Hero....

hizo1 · #2 04-11-2005, 09:57 PM

Personally I would fold preflop after it's capped...

I'd then call down the turn and river.

just some thoughts from an amateur... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I'm ready to get yelled at.

mtdoak · #3 04-11-2005, 10:04 PM

Folding after the cap is a HUGE mistake here. Think about it, MP2 calling (2.5 SB), my raising (4.5 SB), Buttons 3 betting (7.5 SB), SB capping (11 SB), MP2 calling 3 (15 SB). I'm getting 7.5-1, the exact odds of me flopping a set. Plus implied odds. Since your newer, I figured I'd just explain it outright. If you raise with a PP, even if its raise and reraised back to you, your almost always seeing a flop. Now, if you have 66 and its two cold, thats an easy fold. Understand?

Pokey · #4 04-11-2005, 10:08 PM

Let's think of what hands would play like Button given the cards you're seeing: we've got a preflop reraise, a flop reraise, and a turn raise. This guy's taking off every chance he gets. With what?

Well, it would (as always) help to have a bit of a read on Button. However, we can still make some statements. Button might play this way with:

1. Pocket As, Ks, Qs, Js, Ts, or 9s, trying to punish the flush draw.
2. Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] trying to maximize value (four players makes the bets pretty well profitable, especially if the ace outs are good, too).
3. K9s betting for value.
4. AK, KQ, or possibly even Kx, betting top pair.

I can't think of any other hands you might see betting this way. Of them, exactly two have you beaten. I think I call the turn raise and see what the river brings. If it's a club or a diamond, check and make a crying call. If it's a blank, either check and call or even bet it for value.

You can't give up on this hand (obviously), but whether you keep the juice a-flowin' depends entirely on who Mr. Button is.

hizo1 · #5 04-11-2005, 10:14 PM

thanks man,

just wondering if and how you guys think the implied odds change if we put the 3-bettor and capper on pocket pairs as well (given that mtdoak has read them as predictable)...

mtdoak · #6 04-11-2005, 10:19 PM

If they both have big pocket pairs here, your implied are high because if you flop a set, you have them both drawing to 2 outs (most of the time), AND your going to get alot of action with the best hand. If no one has turned you on the Small Stakes Hold'Em, you really need to start there.

Small Stakes Hold'Em

Pick up Hold'Em for advanced players as well at some point, but right now start there.

BriPlay · #7 04-11-2005, 10:24 PM

thanks for the post...
boy..i'd probably wimp and call it down from the turn raise.
what could Button have 3bet and be jamming without regard...AA, at worst..but KK is a real possibility id fear...unless you have other info about his style.
Brian

Little Fishy · #8 04-11-2005, 10:36 PM

hmm...

what does Button have??
AA-99, A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q-9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], AK maybe [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], KQ maybe [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K9, a maniac 87 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]??

And what about SB?
QQ-99, A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q-9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], AK, KQ, an uneasy AA, maybe 99??

granted each of these hands has a differnt probability, I think you're probably ahead but it's tough to say.

I say 3 bet the turn, if it comes back capped then check call the river unless the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes out in which case you might be able to milk a made flush. and if it doesn't get capped then check or raise the river for value.

I don't presume to be right on this one so i'd be interested to hear what others have to say.

-little fishy

brettbrettr · #9 04-11-2005, 10:41 PM

Once SB calls the turn raises I'm no longer scared of his holding a set. Keep betting. If button has a better set, so be it.

Note, without reads I normally just keep on betting sets on drawless boards. You seem to post as many hands w/o reads as I do. Reads help.

hizo1 · #10 04-11-2005, 10:49 PM

thanks again doak.

I hate arguing extensibly about preflop play given how well SSH explains starting hand concepts, but what i meant was how our odds are affected preflop here... I think that altough we'll hit our set 12% of the time on the flop, do you guys think that in a capped preflop pot we have to discount for pocket pairs our predictable EP opponents may have, i.e. AA-TT and possibly 99 (which would be a worry here).

How does this sound (?):

Say 3bet and capping hands include AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, and AK --> 6/7 possible hands make a better set potentially. If we generously put both villains on these hands, the odds that we'll hit the WINNING set will decrease, no? Given the way villains bet on the flop and turn, they may have AA, KK, 99, and AK. = 2/4 hands that have us beat. What do you think, mtdoak?

h.e.c.