good reraise here, on the flop?

crackthis09 · #1 04-09-2005, 06:35 PM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero caps, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (12.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

if there is 3 to a flush on the flop, what are the chances of someone complete'ing their flush by the river.

~josh

deepsquat · #2 04-10-2005, 12:52 AM

tricky hand- how would a bet/fold on the river go? u may be able to fold a low/middle spade.

and your raise on the flop was good.

MrWookie47 · #3 04-10-2005, 01:04 AM

Nice hand. I don't think anyone can blame you for not betting the river on this one. There are few instances where you'd get such a sinking feeling from spiking a set on the river.

Dave G. · #4 04-10-2005, 01:15 AM

Firstly I'd have raised the flop and checked the river here too, so I play it the same.

[ QUOTE ]
if there is 3 to a flush on the flop, what are the chances of someone complete'ing their flush by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are the probabilities that someone was dealt a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with 3 on the board and none in your hand. The chances increase rapidly as you add more opponents.

1 opponent: 0.383904
2 opponents: 0.62972
3 opponents: 0.783491

So against your 2 opponents here, there's a 63% chance that at least one of them has at least one [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Assuming one of them does have a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the chance they will make their flush from the flop by the river is about 35%. That chance decreases to 19.5% if the turn is not a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Shillx · #5 04-10-2005, 01:33 AM

and your raise on the flop was good.

Care to enligten us as to why???

If you are going to make a non-elaborated statement like this...at least have it be correct.

Brad

Ianco15 · #6 04-10-2005, 01:35 AM

After sb checks to you on the river I think a bet is pretty safe.

Shillx · #7 04-10-2005, 01:39 AM

This hand is pretty easy to play. Call the flop and raise if the turn isn't a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It is all a matter of equity and while a flop raise might have value, anyone with a spade will be happy paying an extra small bet as a 2:1 underdog to hit their flush. We wait until the turn because now we can make them pay twice as much (they invest 2 BB instead of 2 SB) at half the odds (now they are 4:1 to miss). Genius!

Brad

istewart · #8 04-10-2005, 01:39 AM

You can probably call the flop and raise the turn.

deepsquat · #9 04-10-2005, 01:42 AM

Shillx

just about to type my answer and im looking at the hand now... and i think i know why im wrong.

So he has a pair of aces and a re-draw to the nuts if he is behind.

If he is behind a raise is only adding value to someone elses flush, while potentially forcing out SB who could pay us off with worse hands.

So a call on the flop and turn is in order (assuming we dont improve). This will keep SB in the hand hopefully with dead money.

Is that even close shillx? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

deepsquat · #10 04-10-2005, 01:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is pretty easy to play. Call the flop and raise if the turn isn't a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It is all a matter of equity and while a flop raise might have value, anyone with a spade will be happy paying an extra small bet as a 2:1 underdog to hit their flush. We wait until the turn because now we can make them pay twice as much (they invest 2 BB instead of 2 SB) at half the odds (now they are 4:1 to miss). Genius!

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Got it- thanks