RedSox rebound

[mrbaseball]

I like Boston at +158 over the Yankees today. In fact this is exactly the kind of play I look for. Pretty much of a coinflip that pays out better than 60%.

Mussina is no longer an ace and more of a veteran journeyman at this point. Wakefield has never been anything but a veteran journeyman.

Last Year Wakefield was 2-0 with a 3.67 era against Yankees. Mussina was 2-1 vs Sox with 3.82 era. Sounds pretty even so far. Boston had slightly better run production than Yankees and Yankees get homefield edge. I look for Boston to rebound and avoid the sweep. Both closers are rattled.

I see this game as a pure 50/50 coinflip that pays 1.58 to 1. As Homer Simpson would say "I like those odds!" It may not come in but it's an incredibly easy play and a huge longterm winner.

[Paluka]

Yesterday (Pavano vs Clement) seems like it was much more of a coinflip than Mussina and Wakefield. Nobody really thinks Wakefield is as good as Mussina.
The Red Sox and Yankees both had pretty extreme home/road splits last year, so you have to count that for something.
I think betting the Sox today is a lot worse than betting them yesterday.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody really thinks Wakefield is as good as Mussina

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody thinks Wakefield is as good as Mussina WAS. Now? I think Mussina is over the hill and on a downward spiral. Wakefield has 4 starts in Yankee stadium in past 2 years and gives up 5 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched. I like my chances here. Luckily yesterday I wimped out and only took Bosox on the +1.5 runline [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[null]

I like this play too. I bet it last night at +163.

[sublime]

Nobody really thinks Wakefield is as good as Mussina.

hence the value

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody really thinks Wakefield is as good as Mussina.

hence the value

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but MrBaseball referred to this as "a coinflip getting 3 to 2 odds".

[mrbaseball]

Which is way you were getting 3 to 2 odds. That is the value, a coinflip that pays better than even money. Public perception was the Yankees and Mussina to be 60%+ favorites here. Because they are the Yankees. Because Mussina is percieved better than Wakefield. I didn't percieve it that way. I knew that Wakefield has performed well in NY and had a geniune chance to keep his team in it. I saw the lineups and pitchers virtually even in this one. Luckily for me it came in. I figured it should 50% of the time and this time it did. Boston sure seems to have Riveras number too which never hurts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DougOzzzz]

At this point, my default strategy will be picking against the Yankees every game they play. +182, +155, +160 for 3 games against the Red Sox, the team most think will be their toughest challenge this year? What's it going to be against Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa, etc?

I did like the game 2 matchup better than game 3, though.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
What's it going to be against Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa, etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just thinking the same thing. If this series is any indication we are gonna see a whole bunch of -250 lines on Yankees this season. Which of course for the astute should be real profitable [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[craig r]

Even if the line is -250 betting on the Yankees won't be a good bet, but there is a chance that betting the other side won't be profitable either. Especially in -250/+220 situations that will happen often. I think blindly betting NYY (not that this is what you are advocating) when they are -250 will be detrimental to one's bankroll. Plus, they will most likely be getting these prices at home, where they really are very dominant. I think HFA is over estimated in MLB, but some teams have a large HFA. And the yankees are one of them. In fact, NYY was 57-24 last year at home and betting on them every game last year (home and away) would have won 2.25 units. I am by no means advocating betting on the yankees, but i don't think blindly betting against them with big numbers is advisable.


Also, the prices are always a little bit higher at the beginning of the season than half way through.

craig