When should I have folded this?

PokerBob · #1 03-29-2005, 01:31 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, 2 folds, Button caps, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (21.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP2 caps, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (20.66 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (25.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 29.66 BB

Chris Dow · #2 03-29-2005, 01:36 PM

You can barely call preflop and you certainly can't call 2 cold on the flop.

MoreWineII · #3 03-29-2005, 01:41 PM

I think preflop is fine, but check-calling two bets on the flop is meh.

PokerBob · #4 03-29-2005, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think preflop is fine, but check-calling two bets on the flop is meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

fold getting 13.5:1?

Pokey · #5 03-29-2005, 01:47 PM

KQs is strong enough pre-flop to call two cold when the betting is capped. You know you're going to need a bunch of help on the flop with this hand, but with your hand, you've got lots of ways to get it.

On the flop, I think both of your calls were pretty clear folds. You need two miracle cards in a row to have a winning hand here: AJ, or J9. I'm thinking your Q and K are probably both counterfeited here, and you're probably facing a huge pair, TPTK, and/or a solid straight draw (pocket 9s maybe?).

Given that you somehow got to the turn, your call there is fine. One bet for a gutshot to the absolute nuts when you're getting more than 20:1 odds makes financial sense. Even if you'd had to call two, you'd be getting good enough implied odds to continue, assuming you have the discipline to fold anything but a J on the river.

Oh, and the river bet makes sense to me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

mr pink · #6 03-29-2005, 01:47 PM

how clean are your king and queen outs?

nice suckout btw

afk · #7 03-29-2005, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think preflop is fine, but check-calling two bets on the flop is meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

fold getting 13.5:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

When it could very well get 3bet behind you? Yes. Effective odds, baby. You've got two overs which are almost certainly no good based on the (readless) preflop action, a disjointed straight draw and not even a 3flush. To me, this is a no brainer flop fold.

Pokey · #8 03-29-2005, 01:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold getting 13.5:1?

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Well, 13.5:1 with what kind of outlook? I look at the board on the flop and I can honestly say that I think you lose noticeably more than 12.5 out of 13.5 times. When the betting gets capped, that just shows even more strength in your opponents hands, and it's an even more clear fold to me.

SERIOUS CAVEAT: this analysis assumes no reads. If you had some notion that these were maniacs or otherwise quite loose and aggressive, your odds of winning go up quite a bit. If either of the post-flop betters/raisers were tight and/or passive, you're dead in the water (barring the miracle you actually got).

Tilt-a-Whirl · #9 03-29-2005, 02:09 PM

I would call two bets to me preflop as well. With 5 people in and the large pot, this one will payoff nice if the flop hits you.

It didn't....and its 3 bets cold to you.

I fold this on the flop.

Entity · #10 03-29-2005, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think preflop is fine, but check-calling two bets on the flop is meh.

[/ QUOTE ]

fold getting 13.5:1?

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Uh, yeah. What the hell are you drawing to? Runner runner?