Probability of my aces losing 4 straight times?

Cleveland Guy · #1 04-03-2005, 12:49 AM

I have lost my last 4 times with aces

AA vs. A7 (flop was 77x)
AA vs. KK (flop was a K)
AA vs. 78s (flop was 69s, river a 5)
AA vs. JQ (flop was JJQ)

Yes these are all bad beats, but what is the odds for this on 4 straight times I've had AA?

Cleveland Guy · #2 04-03-2005, 12:56 AM

Is it as simple as taking each of them and multyiplying it together?

A7 = .12
78 = .23
KK = .19
JQ = .15

.12 x .23 x.19 x.15 =.0007

or .07%?

Is that right?

Siegmund · #3 04-03-2005, 05:20 AM

This is not rare at all.

Remember, the event you are interested in is having *someone* at the table beat your aces - not whether the person who cracks you happens to be playing KK or 98s or 72o.

If all ten people at the table stay to the river, AA will only win about 35% of the time. Under those artificial conditions, the odds of losing 4 times in a row are only 5:1 against!

In the "real world" there won't be quite that many suckouts, but since people generally fold their longshots and play their solid straight or flush draws against you, I would guess that aces win roughtly half the time you hold them. I'm sure someone with PokerTracker will be happy to quote some figures. If aces win half the time this is only 15:1 against, if they win two-thirds of the time (and I think this is WAY more often than they do in real life) 80:1 against.