#1
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How Much Should I Bet Here?
I really wasn't sure how much to bet on the river in the following hand. I would be very interested in thoughts and analysis. Of course, other comments are also appreciated.
Background: 5-5 NL game at a NY club. I sat down about 10 hands ago and have not played a pot. My stack is slightly less than the $600 buy in. Villian is directly to my right. I have never seen him before. He hasn't done anything of note in the short time I have been there. Only intelligence is that a bad player won't shut up about how this guy called an all-in and hit on the river to take bad player's stack. Villian is being diplomatic about it and said he called because he thought bad player was bluffing and got lucky. Villian has me well covered. The Hand: Villian is UTG and limps. I make it $30 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Someone in LP calls, the BB calls and Villian calls. $125 in the pot. Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Checked to me and I bet $100. LP folds, BB folds and Villian calls. $325 in the pot. Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villian checks, I bet $175 (not enough, right?) and Villain calls. $675 in pot. River: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villian checks. So, I've got $285 left. I didn't bet enough on the turn (I think) there is a possible flush and a bunch of possible straights out there but I think it is pretty unlikely Villian was drawing to any of them. Question 1: Do you agree that I want to make a bet he will call? Anyone think this board is too scary to bet with middle set? Question 2: Assumming you agree that I should bet, how much? Just shove in my remaining stack (which is left than half the pot) or something less? |
#2
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Re: How Much Should I Bet Here?
small turn bet is fine bc of your short stack... also it is way likely for him to have an ace than a nasty gutshot. on the river, definitely allin. make it look good, think about it for a second...
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#3
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Re: How Much Should I Bet Here?
What flawless said! The only way he has a straight is if he is a fish and is chasing the gut shot with J-K. Flush is pretty unlikely as well.
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#4
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Re: How Much Should I Bet Here?
I think a bigger bet is warranted on the turn here, at least bet $225 so that he REALLY is committed to call the rest of your stack if he calls. The only conceivable hand that beats you here unless he is a total fish is Qx spades, and that doesnt seem terribly likely (or well played) either. So yes, its possible he got there somehow but not all that likely, so I think moving in is good here more often than not.
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#5
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Re: How Much Should I Bet Here?
I appreciate the responses. Thank you. I did push and he mucked. I think AQ would have called so I'm really not sure what he had. I was just curious what others thought because I don't think I got as much out of this one as I could have.
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