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#1
03-20-2005, 10:35 PM
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QQ 4-way capped pre-flop, Ace on flop
General read on UTG+1 was slightly loose but not stupid. No idea about his pre-flop aggression.
CO was LA-A, but not maniacal by any means. Button was LA-P. The Gaming Club 0.5/1 Limit 10-handed Hero holds Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP1 UTG folds, UTG+1 <font color="red">raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero <font color="red">3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 <font color="red">caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls. Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG+1 <font color="red">bets</font>, Hero <font color="red">???</font> Well, now what? If I was last to act, I'd call and see the turn (getting ~18:1), but with two to act behind me, each calling 3 cold, I feared a raise which no longer gave me correct odds to see the turn. I don't see how I could possibly have the best hand right now either, so I opted to fold. 
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#3
03-21-2005, 02:12 AM
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bump
for more thoughts? or does everyone agree with folding?
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#4
03-21-2005, 02:19 AM
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Re: QQ 4-way capped pre-flop, Ace on flop
What are the chances there is not ONE ACE in a 4 way capped flop? I'd rate it as pretty high that someone has an ace.
On the flop, you could call, but it could be raised behind...and 3-bet..and you don't want that, your reletive position sucks, save yourself some bets and fold
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#5
03-21-2005, 02:24 AM
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Re: QQ 4-way capped pre-flop, Ace on flop
The fold is fine. You've got no backdoors and aren't closing the action; 18-1 would be fine closing the action but you aren't, and there's always the possibility you're drawing dead already anyway.
Rob
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#6
03-21-2005, 02:49 AM
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Re: QQ 4-way capped pre-flop, Ace on flop
[ QUOTE ]
General read on UTG+1 was slightly loose but not stupid. No idea about his pre-flop aggression. CO was LA-A, but not maniacal by any means. Button was LA-P. The Gaming Club 0.5/1 Limit 10-handed Hero holds Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP1 UTG folds, UTG+1 <font color="red">raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero <font color="red">3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 <font color="red">caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls. Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG+1 <font color="red">bets</font>, Hero <font color="red">???</font> Well, now what? If I was last to act, I'd call and see the turn (getting ~18:1), but with two to act behind me, each calling 3 cold, I feared a raise which no longer gave me correct odds to see the turn. I don't see how I could possibly have the best hand right now either, so I opted to fold. [/ QUOTE ] 16sb in the pot on the flop. AA,KK,AK are likely hands. Also possible JJ, TT. I don't see 77/99 caps. If you call it down and lose it costs you 2.5bb. If you win the pot you win 14-15.5bb (depending on CO) 15.0 to 2.5 6 to 1 You only need to win 17.5% But 4.5% of the time you'll get trip Queens should earn you another 4bb? (guess on that) I'm not great at math, but...( I'm seriously guessing how this is calculated) I think you only need to be able to win this 12-14% of the time. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me. (BTW, is there anyway to know how often you will actually win this without guessing?) I'm pretty sure it's better to call this down. But someone more knowledgable than me will have to verify this.
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#8
03-21-2005, 04:43 AM
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Re: bump
[ QUOTE ]
Fold this, even if you hit one of your two outs you may well be drawing dead. [/ QUOTE ] I don't see how people are folding this here for 1 bet into a 16 bet pot. The guy raised pre-flop. He will auto bet the flop, it doesn't mean anything in microlimit. If he re-raises or check raises is the only time I would be scared enough to fold this here for 1 or 2 bets.
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#9
03-21-2005, 07:24 AM
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Re: QQ 4-way capped pre-flop, Ace on flop
OK. Same hand, but the diamond is a King. What now?
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#10
03-21-2005, 07:52 AM
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Re: QQ 4-way capped pre-flop, Ace on flop
[ QUOTE ]
If you call it down and lose it costs you 2.5bb. [/ QUOTE ] What about when it gets raised behind you - there are 2 other opponents who paid 4 bets to see the flop - I imagine a lot of the time they'll hold a raisable hand. It could end up costing a lot more that 2.5BB to get to the showdown
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