5/10 NL/PP Deep Stacks, Crazy(?) River Raise

[whitelime]

I normally don't do stuff like this so let me know if you think this is a (-)EV play.

Me and villain both have around 4k. He raises to $50 from EP. I call with 4d5d. Flop comes Ts6s3s. He bets $50, I raise to $150, he calls. Turn is 2s. He checks. I bet 300, he raises to 600, I call. River is 2c. Board now reads Ts6s3s2s2c. He bets 600. I raise all in for $2600 more.

My thought process:

I bet the turn because I think he folds any overpair w/o a spade, and probably QsQx or KsKx since they are not big pot hands at that point.

His min-raise screamed As. I called intending to raise all in on any river that paired the board. I think he is a good enough player to not go broke with a flush on a paired board with stacks that deep. I think I am representing a set or two pair the whole way, and I don't think he has TT with that min-raise on the turn.

[Loci]

[ QUOTE ]

I bet the turn because I think he folds any overpair w/o a spade, and probably QsQx or KsKx since they are not big pot hands at that point.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you want him to fold an overpair that has no spade? He'd be drawing dead... If he has an overpair with a spade, he's not going anywhere and you're drawing dead.
[ QUOTE ]
His min-raise screamed As. I called intending to raise all in on any river that paired the board.

[/ QUOTE ]
By the previous bet on the turn, you've already tried to represent that you have the flush. If he's put you on that already, I don't see him laying the A spades (and maybe not the K spades) down.
[ QUOTE ]
I think I am representing a set or two pair the whole way, and I don't think he has TT with that min-raise on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're better representing A/K or A/Q, one spade. If he has A spades or better you're toast, imo.

[whitelime]

Obviously I'd love him calling a bet on a 4 flush with red aces but it is not happening with stacks this deep. As such, I'd prefer to take it down, rather than split it if a 5th spade comes out.

As for a hand like KsKx or QsQx, you really think he is calling a bet out of position on a 4 flush board?

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
I normally don't do stuff like this so let me know if you think this is a (-)EV play.

Me and villain both have around 4k. He raises to $50 from EP. I call with 4d5d. Flop comes Ts6s3s. He bets $50, I raise to $150, he calls. Turn is 2s. He checks. I bet 300, he raises to 600, I call. River is 2c. Board now reads Ts6s3s2s2c. He bets 600. I raise all in for $2600 more.

My thought process:

I bet the turn because I think he folds any overpair w/o a spade, and probably QsQx or KsKx since they are not big pot hands at that point.

His min-raise screamed As. I called intending to raise all in on any river that paired the board. I think he is a good enough player to not go broke with a flush on a paired board with stacks that deep. I think I am representing a set or two pair the whole way, and I don't think he has TT with that min-raise on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

a set/two pair checks behind with that turn.

[whitelime]

I think you're right the more I think about it. Given that however, is someone still going to a huge all-in with a flush on a paired board with deep stacks?

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're right the more I think about it. Given that however, is someone still going to a huge all-in with a flush on a paired board with deep stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its posible that he might have read your turn bet as trying to push him off KK/QQ with your set (note the small river bet).

[fsuplayer]

i have seen it sooo many times before. the majority of players, even solid seeming ones, dont lay down ace high flushes. paired board or not.

[Mad Genius1]

I think you would need a really good read on villian to make this play. If this is your average unknown player, I wouldn't even think about doing it. If you know each other well and he has a lot of respect for your play and will fold big hands to you, then I guess it's a reasonable play, although I get the feeling that 95% of all players will call you with the As.

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
i have seen it sooo many times before. the majority of players, even solid seeming ones, dont lay down ace high flushes. paired board or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says he has As?

[whitelime]

[ QUOTE ]
although I get the feeling that 95% of all players will call you with the As.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 95% is way too high an estimate. That having been said, from the responses I hear, seems like I'm better off just mucking this on the turn.