AJ TPTK against possible rock

[schwza]

100+9 on party. i've played ~50 hands with villain, his VPIP is 10, his PFR is 3.

i have 1800, he has 930. blinds 15/30.

i raise to 100 with AdJh in utg+2. villain calls. others fold.

flop (pot = 245) J 9 3 rainbow

i bet 180, he pushes for 650 more.

what the hell is a fella to do?

and a side question, would you be more or less inclined to call if the board had 2 spades? 3 spades?

[2005]

I pretty much suck, so I'm prolly gonna call

Gavin

[LethalRose]

I see 2 options here, if hes truly a rock.

1) hes putting you on AK and bluffing you out of the pot

2) he has QQ, KK, AA, JJ


1 is liable if he has seen you chase overcard draws or overplay AK when you should fold on the flop.

[gumpzilla]

Given how rocky your opponent seems, I'm probably expecting this to be QQ-AA, or, in the best case scenario, AJ. So though you're getting reasonably nice odds to call, you have terrible equity against that range, obviously. So if I'm convinced that he's as tight as those numbers suggest, I probably lay this down.

As far as with the draws out there, in general I think that makes it an easier call. With this guy in particular, I think it introduces hands like AQs, AKs that you would be well ahead of, and so a call is probably closer to correct. This assumes, of course, that this guy would push with two overs and a flush draw, which I could imagine a tight-weak player not doing.

[LethalRose]

Its a rainbow flop, i dont think a rock would push hoping to hit runner runner hearts, even with 2 overs. He is not that desperate yet.

[gumpzilla]

At the end of the post was a question asking if this call becomes easier if there are flush draws out there. Yes, I think we all agree that the rock is not going to be gunning for a runner runner flush draw.