Flopped set, small pot, scary turn/river

Tapin · #1 03-03-2005, 04:00 AM

Very little read on UTG, but in <30 hands appears to be LP-P. How do you play the turn & river?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG calls.

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero...?

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

bottomset · #2 03-03-2005, 04:02 AM

uh bets

adsman · #3 03-03-2005, 04:19 AM

The Turn is a no brainer bet for sure.

The river is interesting. You have to figure out how often he is going to call you with a worse hand. Villian has been passive the whole way through the hand, so he could have anything. The question is, does he have a T? More reads in this situation would be very helpful. Have you ever seen him checkraise? Does he only bet or raise with the nuts? Does he always call on the end to keep you honest? Hard to know after only 30 hands.
Does betting here have +EV? I'm not sure. This has me puzzled. Help from soemone who can solve this would be appreciated.

Tapin · #4 03-03-2005, 02:16 PM

Thanks, adsman, those are exactly the kinds of questions I was trying to figure out.

Absent any sort of useful read (other than "trending LP-P"), it seems to me that a bet on the river is +EV, but a further question is whether I lay it down to a check-raise.

I'd be interested in hearing any other thoughts on the matter.

Dead · #5 03-03-2005, 02:17 PM

Hero bets, and calls a check-raise, getting 9.5 to 1.

Lots of worse hands will pay you off here. Qx and 9x will probably pay you off, and Kx will almost certainly pay you off. If he turned the flush he would have probably check-raised the turn. What makes you think he has a 10?

iluzion · #6 03-03-2005, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero bets, and calls a check-raise, getting 9.5 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]